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Franklin Electric

6/29/2016

0 Comments

 
Franklin Electric is a manufacturer of submersible pumps, fueling systems as well as submersible electric motors and center pivot irrigation systems. Founded in 1944 in Bluffton, Indiana, the company moved its corporate headquarters to nearby Fort Wayne, Indiana in summer 2013. Today the company has 20 facilities in 13 countries.

Until 2004, Franklin Electric was primarily a supplier to original equipment manufacturers but has since shifted the business focus to being a supplier of ground water pumping products. The company has made a series of acquisitions in the water pumping industry, including The Little Giant Pump Company, JBD (formerly the pump line of Jacuzzi), Monarch Pumps, Centrifugal pump lines from Pioneer Pump, CAL pumps, Western Pump, Schneider Motobombas, Denorco Pumps, and a controlling share of Vertical Pumps of Italy.

The company also manufactures pump products for agriculture irrigation and dewatering, coal bed methane, sump, sewage, and effluent, water gardening, OEM submersible electric motors, and the fluid fueling industry. 
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​Franklin Electric Co., Inc. designs, manufactures, and distributes water and fuel pumping systems worldwide. It operates in two segments, Water Systems and Fueling Systems. The Water Systems segment offers motors, pumps, electronic controls, and related parts and equipment. Its motors and pumps are used principally for pumping clean water and wastewater in various residential, agricultural, and industrial applications; and electronic drives and controls are used in motors, which control functionality and provide protection from various hazards, such as electric surges, over-heating, or dry wells or tanks. The Fueling Systems segment provides pumps, pipes, sumps, fittings, vapor recovery components, electronic controls, monitoring devices, and related parts and equipment primarily for use in submersible fueling system applications. It integrates and sells motors and electronic controls produced by the Water Systems segment. The company sells its products to specialty distributors, original equipment manufacturers, industrial and petroleum equipment distributors, and oil and utility companies. Franklin Electric Co., Inc. was founded in 1944 and is headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana.
​(Summary) (Company) (Chart)
26 June 2016
Price $31.44
1yr Target $33.57
Analysts 7
Dividend $0.40
Payout Ratio 27.97%

1yr Cap Gain 6.77%
Yield 1.27%
1yr Tot Return 8.04%

P/E 21.99
PEG 0.55
Beta 1.53
EPS (ttm) $1.43
EPS next yr $1.83
Forward P/E 17.14
EPS next 5yr 40.00%
1yr Price Support $73.20

Market Cap $1.45 Bil
Revenues $917.60 Mil
Earnings $66.00 Mil
Profit Margin 7.19%

Quick Ratio 1.60
Current Ratio 3.00
Debt/Equity 0.40
1yr RevGR -11.66%
3yr RevGR 1.22%
5yr RevGR 5.31%

1yr EarnGR 6.38%
3yr EarnGR -4.60%
5yr EarnGR 7.78%

1yr DivGR 8.33%
3yr DivGR 10.27%
5yr DivGR 8.44%

ROA 6.40%
ROE 11.60%

Operations

Franklin Electric Co., Inc. is an Indiana corporation founded in 1944 and incorporated in 1946. The Company designs, manufactures and distributes water and fuel pumping systems, composed primarily of submersible motors, pumps, electronic controls and related parts and equipment. The Company’s water pumping systems move fresh and waste water for the housing, agriculture, and other industrial end markets. Historically, water-pumping systems contributed about 80 percent of revenues.

The Company is also a top supplier of submersible fueling systems at gas stations, making pumps, pipes, electronic controls, and monitoring devices. Fuel pumping systems account for the balance of the Company’s revenues.

The Company's business consists of two reporting segments based on the principal end market served: the Water Systems segment and the Fueling Systems segment. The Company includes unallocated corporate expenses in an “Other” segment that, together with the Water Systems and Fueling Systems segments, represent the Company. 

The Company's products are sold worldwide by its employee sales force and independent manufacturing representatives. The Company offers normal and customary trade terms to its customers, no significant part of which is of an extended nature. Special inventory requirements are not necessary, and customer merchandise return rights do not extend beyond normal warranty provisions.

The market for the Company's products is highly competitive and includes diversified accounts by size and type. The Company's Water Systems and Fueling Systems products and related equipment are sold to specialty distributors and some original equipment manufacturers (“OEMs”), as well as industrial and petroleum equipment distributors and major oil and utility companies.
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Business Segments and Products

Water Systems Segment. Water Systems is a global leader in the production and marketing of water pumping systems and is a technical leader in submersible motors, pumps, drives, electronic controls, and monitoring devices. The Water Systems segment designs, manufactures and sells motors, pumps, electronic controls and related parts and equipment primarily for use in groundwater, wastewater, and fuel transfer applications. 

Water Systems motors and pumps are used principally for pumping clean water and wastewater in a variety of residential, agricultural, and industrial applications. Water Systems also manufactures electronic drives and controls for the motors which control functionality and provide protection from various hazards, such as electric surges, over-heating, or dry wells or tanks. 

The Water Systems business has grown from a domestic submersible motor manufacturer to a global manufacturer of systems and components for the movement of water and automotive fuels. Founded in the 1940s, the Company made submersible motors for pumps for much of its history. About 10 years ago, it entered the pump business, and has since grown through acquisitions. Highlights of the Water Systems business transformation, from its origins to the present, are as follows:
  • 1950s - Domestic submersible motor manufacturer
  • 1990s - Global manufacturer of submersible motors, electronic drives and controls selling to pump OEMs
  • 2004 - Began to change the business model to include pumps and sell directly to wholesale distributors
  • 2006 - Added adjacent pumping systems, acquired Little Giant Pump Company, United States
  • 2007 - Expanded globally, acquired Pump Brands (Pty) Limited, South Africa
  • 2008 - Continued global expansion, acquired Industrias Schneider SA, Brazil
  • 2009 - International acquisition, Vertical, S.p.A., Italy
  • 2011 - International acquisition, Impo Motor Pompa Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S., Turkey 
  • 2012 - Acquired majority interest, 70.5%, in mobile pumping systems company, Pioneer Pump Holdings, Inc. ("PPH"), a United States company with subsidiaries in the United Kingdom and South Africa
  • 2014 - International acquisitions, Bombas Leao S.A., Brazil and majority interest, 70%, of Pluga Pumps and Motors Private Limited, India
  • 2015 - Acquired remaining 29.5% noncontrolling interest of PPH

Water Systems products are sold in highly competitive markets. Water-pumping systems contribute about 80 percent of revenue. Significant portions of segment revenue come from selling groundwater and surface pumps to residential and commercial buildings, a relatively stable business, as well as agricultural sales which are more seasonal and subject to commodity price changes.

The Water segment generates 40 percent of its revenue in developing markets, which often lack municipal water systems. As those countries bring systems up to date, the Company views those markets as an opportunity. The Company has had 15 to 20 percent compounded annual sales growth in those regions in recent years.

Water Systems competes in each of its targeted markets based on product design, quality of products and services, performance, availability, and price. The Company's principal competitors in the specialty water products industry are Grundfos Management A/S, Pentair, Inc., and Xylem, Inc. 

2015 Water Systems research and development expenditures were primarily related to the following activities:
  • Electronic drives and controls for submersible pumping and HVAC applications
  • Submersible pumping technology, including the new FhotonTM  Solar Drive system  
  • Submersible and surface pumps for agricultural and municipal applications
  • Gray water pumping equipment, including the Pit+Plus® Basin System, IGPH series high head grinder pumps, and Battery Backup Sump Pump Kits
  • Submersible motor technology and motor protection
  • Artificial Lift systems for gas well dewatering and oil pumping, including a new drive system and deeper set pumps


Fueling Systems Segment. Fueling Systems is a global leader in the production and marketing of fuel pumping systems, fuel containment systems, and monitoring and control systems. The Fueling Systems segment designs, manufactures and sells pumps, pipe, sumps, fittings, vapor recovery components, electronic controls, monitoring devices and related parts and equipment primarily for use in submersible fueling system applications.

Fueling Systems has expanded its product offerings through internal development and acquisitions. Highlights of the Fueling Systems history are as follows:
  • 1990s - Domestic manufacturer of submersible turbine pumping systems
  • 2000 - Acquired Advanced Polymer Technology, Inc., a manufacturer of underground pipe for fueling applications, and EBW, Inc., a manufacturer and distributor of fueling hardware components
  • 2006 - Acquired Healy Systems, Inc., a manufacturer of fueling nozzles and vapor recovery systems
  • 2010 - Acquired PetroTechnik Limited, a United Kingdom distributor that designs and sources flexible and lightweight underground pipe
  • 2012 - Acquired Flexing, Inc., a manufacturer of fueling equipment including stainless steel flexible hose connectors
  • 2014 - Acquired majority interest, 65%, in Wadcorpp India Private Limited, India, a distributor of fueling equipment
 
Fueling Systems products are sold in highly competitive markets. In Fueling Systems, rising car use is leading to more investment in gas stations which, in turn, leads to increased demand for the Company’s Fueling Systems products. The Company believes there is growth opportunity in developing markets and acquired an investment in India in 2014.

Fueling Systems competes in each of its targeted markets based on product design, quality of products and services, performance, availability, and price. The Company's principal competitors in the petroleum equipment industry are Danaher Corporation and Dover Corporation.

2015 Fueling Systems research and development expenditures were primarily related to the following activities:
  • Development of alternative fuel pumping systems
  • Development of a system for monitoring substation circuit breakers
  • Development of a system for routing electrical wiring to watertight fuel containment sumps
  • Software enhancements to automatic tank gauges

My Perspective

This is an interesting company but it really is a play on infrastructure. As long as Franklin Electric continues to develop new products and water and fuel companies continue to expand their infrastructure to meet the demands of their consumers, this company will do very well. Management has done well holding down debt while increasing their asset base ensuring that the dividend is more than covered going forward. Even keeping the payout as a percentage of earnings gives management room to easily increase the dividend in the high single digits for a long time into the future. 

What bothers me the most is the top line comparisons. They were doing an outstanding job of increasing sales until 2015. That may be a one time event, but it's something that will need to be watched going forward. What's most interesting is the analyst's estimated 5 year earnings growth rate going forward. That expectation of 40% growth going forward could support an expansion of the P/E ratio. Even if the ratio stays where it is today (22), expected earnings of $1.83 would result in a stock price of $40.26 which is a 28% gain from today's price. An expanded ratio of only 25 (for a company growing at an 5 year estimated rate of 40%) would result in a stock price next year of $45.75 which is 45% higher than the price of the stock today. Add in a dividend that's increasing at 8-10% per year and this could be a winner.

But all of this is based on the assumption that the analyst's projections are correct and that's often a "big if". That's why this company will be placed high on my watch list for now. If sales and earnings start to increase and the numbers make sense, I expect that I'll make an investment in this company. On the other hand, if the stock price falls below $30 per share, then an estimated one year target of $33.57 will product a one year estimated return of over 11%. Add in the small dividend and the combined return is higher than my minimal threshold of 12%. If that happens, I'll add this security to my others and grow that position as I normally do. 

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0 Comments

Nike

6/27/2016

3 Comments

 
Nike is engaged in the design, development, manufacturing and worldwide marketing and sales of footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories and services. It's one of the world's largest suppliers of athletic shoes and apparel and a major manufacturer of sports equipment. Nike markets its products under its own brand, as well as Nike Golf, Nike Pro, Nike+, Air Jordan, Nike Blazers, Air Force 1, Nike Dunk, Air Max, Foamposite, Nike Skateboarding, and subsidiaries including Brand Jordan, Hurley International and Converse. 

In addition to manufacturing sportswear and equipment, the company operates retail stores under the Niketown name. Nike sponsors many high-profile athletes and sports teams around the world, with the highly recognized trademarks of "Just Do It" and the Swoosh logo.
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Nike, Inc. designs, develops, markets, and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories for men, women, and kids worldwide. The company offers products in eight categories, including running, basketball, football, men’s training, women’s training, sportswear, action sports, and golf under the NIKE and Jordan brand names. It also markets products designed for kids, as well as for other athletic and recreational uses, such as cricket, lacrosse, tennis, volleyball, wrestling, walking, and outdoor activities. In addition, the company sells sports apparel and accessories; and markets apparel with licensed college and professional team and league logos. Further, it sells a line of performance equipment, including bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment, golf clubs, and other equipment under the NIKE brand name for sports activities; various plastic products to other manufacturers; athletic and casual footwear, apparel, and accessories; casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories under the Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell trademarks; and action sports and youth lifestyle apparel and accessories under the Hurley trademark. NIKE, Inc. sells its products to footwear stores; sporting goods stores; athletic specialty stores; department stores; skate, tennis, and golf shops; and other retail accounts through NIKE-owned retail stores and Internet Websites (direct to consumer operations), as well as a mix of independent distributors and licensees. The company was formerly known as Blue Ribbon Sports, Inc. and changed its name to NIKE, Inc. in 1971. NIKE, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)

26 June 2016
Price $52.59
1yr Target $71.05
Analysts 28
Dividend $0.64
Payout Ratio 29.62%

1yr Cap Gain 35.10%
Yield 1.21%
1yr Tot Return 36.31%
​
P/E 24.37
PEG 1.68
Beta 0.58
​
​EPS (ttm) $2.16
EPS next yr $2.46
​Forward P/E 21.40
EPS next 5yr 14.49%
1yr Price Support $34.90
​
​Market Cap $88.60 Bil
Revenues $31.91 Bil
Earnings $3.78 Bil
Profit Margin 11.84%

Quick Ratio 2.10
Current Ratio 3.10
Debt/Equity 0.17
​
1yr RevGR 10.07%
3yr RevGR 9.36%
5yr RevGR 9.98%

1yr EarnGR 24.57%
3yr EarnGR 16.15%
5yr EarnGR 13.90%

1yr DivGR 16.12%
3yr DivGR 15.60%
5yr DivGR 15.30%

ROA 17.60%
ROE 29.50%
​

​Products

The Nike Brand product offerings are focused in eight key categories: Running, Basketball, Soccer, Men’s Training, Women’s Training, Action Sports, Sportswear and Golf. Basketball includes the Jordan Brand product offerings and Men’s Training includes the baseball and American football product offerings. They also market products designed for kids, as well as for other athletic and recreational uses such as cricket, lacrosse, tennis, volleyball, wrestling, walking and outdoor activities.

Nike’s athletic footwear products are designed primarily for specific athletic use, although a large percentage of the products are worn for casual or leisure purposes. The company places considerable emphasis on high-quality construction and innovation in their products. Sportswear, Running, Basketball and Soccer are currently the company's top-selling footwear categories.

Nike sell sports apparel covering most of the above-mentioned categories, which feature the same trademarks and are sold predominantly through the same marketing and distribution channels as athletic footwear. Our sports apparel, similar to our athletic footwear products, is designed primarily for athletic use and exemplifies our commitment to innovation and high-quality construction. Sportswear, Men’s Training, Running and Football (Soccer) are currently our top-selling apparel categories and we expect them to continue to lead in apparel sales. We often market footwear, apparel and accessories in “collections” of similar use or by category. We also market apparel with licensed college and professional team and league logos.

Nike sells a line of performance equipment and accessories under the Nike Brand name, including bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment, golf clubs and other equipment designed for sports activities. They also sell small amounts of various plastic products to other manufacturers through their wholly owned subsidiary, Nike Ihm, Inc.

The Jordan Brand designs, distributes and licenses athletic and casual footwear, apparel and accessories predominantly focused on Basketball using the Jumpman trademark. Sales and operating results for the Jordan Brand are included within the Nike Brand Basketball category and within the respective Nike Brand geographic operating segments.

One of the company's wholly owned subsidiary brands, Hurley, headquartered in Costa Mesa, California (“Hurley”), designs and distributes a line of action sports and youth lifestyle apparel and accessories under the Hurley trademark. Sales and operating results for Hurley are included within the Nike Brand Action Sports category and within the Nike Brand’s North America geographic operating segment, respectively.

Another wholly owned subsidiary, Converse, headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts (“Converse”), designs, distributes and licenses casual sneakers, apparel and accessories under the Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron and Jack Purcell trademarks. Operating results of the Converse brand are reported on a stand-alone basis. 

My Perspective

​I'm old enough to remember when the term "Hi-Tech" was coined to describe Nike's original running shoes. Those Nikes really were something original and redesigned a whole category of footwear. Today Nike still dominates the sports and casual wear despite a number of niche producers. Nike's closest rival is probably Under Armor and it's only half Nike's size. 

I love the fundamentals on this company. The revenue, earnings, and dividend growth rates are excellent and the company's liability coverage and debt to equity ratio is about as good as it gets. Nike really seems like one of those companies that everyone should have in their portfolio.

The only drawback that I can see is the price. But that's easily understood when you start to realize how much this company has dominated it market. From my perspective, I'd like to buy these shares at a Forward P/E ratio nearer to 20 which would put the price just above $49 per share. Under normal conditions it would be obvious that this stock is already oversold at its current price and probably wouldn't fall below $50 per share. But we're dealing with BREXIT right now and the entire market may be going lower. 

In that case, if Nike falls below $50 per share I'll initiate a buying program and start a position in this company. Normal accumulation rules will be put in place which is composed of buying a relatively small amount, adding to that position with dividend reinvestment, the sale of call options, and additional buys as the stock chart dictates. Nike is a rock solid company and I think in the future it will contribute a nice stream of income into my accounts.

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3 Comments

Expedia

6/20/2016

0 Comments

 
Expedia is an online travel company initially launched in October 22, 1996 as the first Microsoft internet property. The company books airline tickets, hotel reservations, car rentals, cruises, vacation packages and various attractions and services online and through telephone travel agents. The site uses multiple global distribution systems like Amadeus or the Sabre reservation systems for flights and for hotels, Worldspan and Pegasus, along with its own hotel reservation system for contracted, bulk-rate reservations. 

​Expedia, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through Core OTA, trivago, Egencia, eLong, and HomeAway segments. It facilitates the booking of hotel rooms, airline seats, car rentals, and destination services from its travel suppliers; and acts as an agent in the transaction. The company serves leisure and corporate travelers, offline retail travel agents, and travel service providers through Expedia.com, Hotels.com, Hotwire.com, Venere.com, Wotif.com, Wotif.co.nz, lastminute.com.au, lastminute.com.nz, travel.com.au, and CarRentals.com Websites; and Travelocity, HomeAway, Egencia, trivago, Classic Vacations, Expedia Local Expert, and Expedia CruiseShipCenters brands, as well as Expedia Affiliate Network. It also engages in advertising and media business. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)
​19 June 2016
Price $104.14
1yr Target $135.44
Analysts 25
Dividend $0.96
Payout Ratio 20.82%

1yr Cap Gain 30.05%
Yield 0.92%
1yr Tot Return 30.97%
​
P/E 22.60
PEG 0.86
Beta 0.78
​
​EPS (ttm) $4.61
EPS next yr $6.71
​Forward P/E 15.53
EPS next 5yr 26.43%
1yr Price Support $177.34
​
​Market Cap $15.83 Bil
Revenues $7.20 Bil
Earnings $598.50 Mil
Profit Margin 8.30%

Quick Ratio 0.50
Current Ratio 0.50
Debt/Equity 0.69
​
​1yr RevGR 15.77%
3yr RevGR 18.10%
5yr RevGR 17.07%

1yr EarnGR 90.63%
3yr EarnGR 41.28%
5yr EarnGR 14.23%

​1yr DivGR 27.27%
3yr DivGR 0.39%
5yr DivGR ---

ROA 4.30%
ROE 17.00%
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Operations

Expedia, Inc. is an online travel company, empowering business and leisure travelers through technology with the tools and information they need to efficiently research, plan, book and experience travel. The company seeks to grow their business through a dynamic portfolio of travel brands, including their majority-owned subsidiaries that feature the world’s broadest supply portfolio — including approximately 435,000 properties in 200 countries, 400 airlines, packages, rental cars, cruises, as well as destination services and activities. Travel suppliers distribute and market products via the company's traditional desktop offerings, as well as through alternative distribution channels including mobile and social media, the company's private label business and their call centers in order to reach an extensive, global audience. In addition, their advertising and media businesses assist other travel providers and reach a large audience of travelers around the globe. 

Portfolio of Brands
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Expedia operates a strong brand portfolio with global reach, targeting a broad range of travelers, travel suppliers and advertisers. Consumers typically visit multiple travel sites prior to booking travel and Expedia, having a multi-brand strategy, increases the likelihood that those consumers will visit one or more of their sites. Expedia also markets to consumers through a variety of channels, including internet search and metasearch sites, and having multiple brands appear in search results increases the likelihood of attracting visitors to one of their sites.  The company's brands also tailor their product offerings to particular traveler demographics. Hotwire finds deep discount deals for the budget-minded travel shopper while  the site Classic Vacations brand targets high-end luxury travelers. Brand Expedia spans the widest swath of potential customers with travel options across a broad value spectrum while the site Hotels.com focuses specifically on a hotel only product offering.

Brand Expedia. As the largest full-service online travel brand in the world, the Expedia-branded websites, including Expedia.com in the US, make a large variety of travel products and services available directly to travelers through websites in 31 countries across the globe. Brand Expedia serves a variety of travelers, from families booking a summer vacation to individual travelers arranging a quick weekend getaway, as well as unmanaged business travelers. Travelers can search for, compare information about (including pricing, availability and verified traveler reviews) and book travel products and services on Expedia branded websites and mobile apps, including airline tickets, lodging, car rentals, cruises, insurance and many local expert services from a large number of suppliers, on both a stand-alone and package basis. In the Asia Pacific region, under a joint venture which was launched on July 1, 2011, Brand Expedia partners with low-cost airline AirAsiaTM allowing Expedia sites to be the only official third party online distribution channel for AirAsia content. 

Wotif Group. In November 2014, Expedia, Inc. completed the acquisition of Wotif Group, a leading Australian online travel company. After exploring options for the Wotif Group sites and operations, the company made the decision to shift them onto Expedia, Inc.’s technology platforms.

Travelocity. After entering into an exclusive, long-term strategic marketing agreement with Travelocity during the third quarter of 2013, under which Brand Expedia powered the technology platform, supply and customer service for Travelocity’s existing websites in the United States and Canada, Expedia, Inc. announced in January 2015 that it had acquired the Travelocity brand and associated assets from Sabre Corporation.

Hotels.com Worldwide. Hotels.com is focused entirely on marketing and distributing hotel rooms. Hotels.com, with more than 85 localized sites worldwide and market leading mobile apps on all major platforms, offers travelers a broad selection of hotel properties. Because of its single product offering, Hotels.com is often the company's first entry point into a region allowing the company to evaluate the market opportunity prior to adding additional brands and product offerings. Welcome Rewards, the Hotels.com loyalty program, offers travelers the ability to earn one free night for every ten nights stayed.

The Hotwire Group. Hotwire offers a travel booking service that matches flexible, price-sensitive travelers with suppliers who have excess seats, rooms and cars they offer at lower rates than retail. Many of these deals are presented “opaquely” where the brand of the travel supplier is not revealed until after the customer books. Hotwire travelers may enjoy significant discounts by electing to book travel services without knowing certain itinerary details such as brand and exact hotel location, while suppliers create value from excess availability without diluting their core, brand-loyal traveler base. Through its U.S. and international sites, Hotwire partners with leading hotel companies worldwide, brand-name domestic and international airlines, and major car rental companies in the US. Hotwire also operates CarRentals.com, an online car rental marketing and retail firm offering a diverse selection of car rentals direct to consumers. During July 2014, Expedia, Inc. completed an acquisition of Auto Escape Group, one of Europe’s leading online car rental reservation companies. Auto Escape Group has joined with the CarRentals.com brand, allowing it to expand internationally to provide customers more choices across the globe and help the company's supply partners expand their marketing reach.

Expedia Affiliate Network. The company's private label, business-to-business brand Expedia Affiliate Network makes hotel services available to travelers through third-party company-branded websites, including some of the leading regional online travel companies and airline suppliers. EAN offers an Application Programming Interface and template solution and generally compensates partners on a revenue or gross profit-share basis.

Egencia. The company's full-service travel management company offers travel products and services to corporations and corporate travelers. Egencia maintains a global presence in more than 60 countries across North America, Europe and Asia Pacific. Egencia provides, among other things, local telephone assistance with expert travel consultants, centralized online and mobile booking tools for employees of its corporate customers, unique supply targeted at business travelers, and consolidated reporting for global, large and small and medium size enterprise business segments. Egencia charges its corporate clients account management fees, as well as transactional fees for making or changing bookings. In addition, Egencia provides on-site agents to some corporate clients to more fully support the account. Egencia offers consulting and meeting management services. 

eLong. Expedia’s majority-owned mobile and online travel service company, based in Beijing, China, specializes in travel products and services in China with a particular focus on driving online hotel bookings. eLong uses web-based distribution technologies, mobile apps and websites, and 24-hour call centers to provide consumers with the ability to make reservations at more than 218,000 properties in China and, through Expedia, hotels in countries worldwide. eLong also offers air ticketing and other travel related information and services. Travelers can access eLong travel products and services through its mobile applications and websites, including www.elong.com and www.elong.net.

trivago. trivago is the company's majority-owned hotel metasearch company, based in Dusseldorf, Germany, featuring price comparison from more than 700,000 hotels on over 250 booking sites worldwide. Officially launched in 2005, trivago is one of the best known travel brands in Europe and is expanding globally with sites in 49 countries in more than 25 languages.

Venere. The Venere website, www.venere.com, lists hotel properties in hundreds of locations around the world and provides hotel partners with geographically diverse sources of demand.

Classic Vacations. Classic Vacations offers individually tailored vacations primarily through a national network of third-party retail travel agents. Classic delivers a full line of premium vacation packages — air, hotels, car rentals, activities, cruises and private transportation — to create customized luxury vacations in Hawaii, the Caribbean, Mexico, Costa Rica, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, Maldives, Dubai, Seychelles and Tahiti. 

Expedia Local Expert. The Expedia Local Expert network offers online and in-market concierge services, activities, experiences, attractions and ground transportation. With access to a rich portfolio of thousands of tours and adventures, Local Expert can be found on 27 Expedia-branded websites and operates more than 100 concierge and activity desks in major resort destinations.

​Expedia CruiseShipCenters. Expedia CruiseShipCenters is a leading seller of cruises and vacations. The franchise company has 180 retail locations across North America, a team of nearly 4,000 professionally-trained vacation consultants and a searchable online database of more than 200,000 staterooms. 

Global Expansion.

Expedia, Hotels.com, Egencia, EAN, and Hotwire brands operate both domestically and through international points of sale, including in Europe, Asia Pacific, Canada and Latin America. The company owns a majority share of eLong, a leading online travel company in China. Expedia also own Venere, a European brand, which focuses on marketing hotel rooms in Southern Europe. Egencia, the company's corporate travel business, operates in more than 60 countries around the world and continues to expand, including its 2012 acquisition of VIA Travel. The company also partners in a 50/50 joint venture with AirAsia — a low cost carrier serving the Asia-Pacific region — to jointly grow an online travel agency business. In 2014, approximately 41% of our worldwide gross bookings and 47% of worldwide revenue were through international points of sale compared to just 22% for both worldwide gross bookings and revenue in 2005. Expedia has the goal of generating 65% of their revenues through businesses and points of sale outside of the US. 

In expanding their global reach, they have leveraged their investments in technology, operations, brand building, supplier relationships and other initiatives that it has made since the launch of Expedia.com in 1996. Their scale of operations enhances the value of technology innovations they introduce on behalf of their travelers and suppliers. This should afford the company the ability to negotiate competitive rates with supply partners, provide breadth of choice and travel deals to the traveling customer through an expanding supply portfolio and create opportunities for new value added offerings such as loyalty programs. The size of Expedia’s worldwide traveler base makes their sites an increasingly appealing channel for travel suppliers to reach customers. In addition, the sheer size of their user base and search query volume allows Expedia to test new technologies very quickly in order to determine which innovations are most likely to improve the travel research and booking process, and then roll those features out to a worldwide audience. 

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​My Perspective

Understanding the width and depth of this company and the appetite for travel throughout the world makes and investment in this industry quite obvious. Looking at the numbers associated with Expedia make this company the obvious candidate within this industry for accumulation.

With an estimated one year return of over 30% and a five year estimated earnings growth rate of over 26%, it's easy to see that these stock price increases highly likely to occur. While I don't usually buy stock with a P/E ratio above 20, I do make exceptions for companies growing at an estimated rate faster than 20% per year. And that's the case with Expedia.

I also like the fact that the company has been increasing its dividend for the last 6 years. I acknowledge that this may not be a long time but it has been sufficiently long to estimate that it is secure and growing. And with a payout ratio of only 20% plus earnings that have been growing in the mid to upper teens, I expect the dividend to be increases significantly in the future. 

All this leads me to believe that the stock price of this company will be significantly higher than it is today. In fact, I believe it'll be higher than most analyst expect as earnings begin to increase faster going forward. Add in an increasing dividend and this looks like a great investment for my portfolio. As a result, I intend to start a position in this company this week as the price bounces off the lower Bollinger Band. This appears to not only be a great company but currently being sold at a great price. 

As always, I'll start with a relatively small position and then add to that position through the reinvestment of dividends, the sale of stock options for reinvestment back into the shares, and additional purchases on the open market at opportune prices. 

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0 Comments

Cedar Fair is FUN

6/15/2016

0 Comments

 
Often the best theme park is the one nearest you. While Disney and Universal have great theme parks, they're not very convenient if you don't live in Florida, California, Paris or Tokyo. For many, they become once in a lifetime vacations. But everyone loves theme parks and want to attend them several times per year. That's where the regional theme parks excel. Cedar Fair has parks throughout the United States and for many who want to visit, they're within a couple hour drive. That makes for repeat business and the sale of annual passes.

Cedar Fair a publicly traded partnership headquartered at the Cedar Point amusement park in Sandusky, Ohio. The company owns and operates eleven amusement parks, three outdoor water parks, one indoor water park, and five hotels. Cedar Fair also manages Gilroy Gardens under contract with the city of Gilroy, California.

Theme parks are primarily a three season business strategy but if bought at the right price they can be a very lucrative investments. Cedar Fair may be the better investment in this category but there are other competitors in this space to include Six Flags Entertainment Corporation. 
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​Cedar Fair, L.P. owns and operates amusement and water parks, and hotels in the United States and Canada. As of February 17, 2016, the company operated approximately 11 amusement parks, 3 outdoor water parks, 1 indoor water park, and 5 hotels. Its amusement parks include Cedar Point located on Lake Erie between Cleveland and Toledo in Sandusky, Ohio; Kings Island near Cincinnati, Ohio; Canada's Wonderland near Toronto, Canada; Dorney Park & Wildwater Kingdom located near Allentown in South Whitehall Township, Pennsylvania; Valleyfair located near Minneapolis/St. Paul in Shakopee, Minnesota; Michigan's Adventure located near Muskegon, Michigan; Kings Dominion located near Richmond, Virginia; Carowinds in Charlotte, North Carolina; Worlds of Fun located in Kansas City, Missouri; Knott's Berry Farm located near Los Angeles in Buena Park, California; and California's Great America located in Santa Clara, California. The company also manages and operates Gilroy Gardens Family Theme Park in Gilroy, California; and owns and operates the Castaway Bay Indoor Waterpark Resort in Sandusky, Ohio, as well as three gated outdoor water parks. Cedar Fair Management, Inc. serves as the general partner of Cedar Fair, L.P. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Sandusky, Ohio.
​(Summary) (Company) (Chart)
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​12 June 2016
Price $58.95
1yr Target $66.00
Analysts 8
Dividend $3.30
Payout Ratio 126.43%

1yr Cap Gain 11.95%
Yield 5.59%
1yr Tot Return 17.54%
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P/E 22.57
PEG 0.89
Beta 0.72
​

​EPS (ttm) $2.61
EPS next yr $3.78
​Forward P/E 15.61
EPS next 5yr 25.43%
1yr Price Support $96.12
​
​Market Cap $3.31 Bil
Revenues $1.25 Bil
Earnings $147.60 Mil
Profit Margin 11.76%

Quick Ratio 0.50
Current Ratio 0.60
Debt/Equity ---
​

​1yr RevGR 6.55%
3yr RevGR ---
5yr RevGR ---

1yr EarnGR 6.98%
3yr EarnGR ---
5yr EarnGR ---

​1yr DivGR 10.00%
3yr DivGR 9.59%
5yr DivGR ---

ROA 7.20%
ROE 431.40%
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​History

​Cedar Point opened in 1870 as a recreational area and belonged to the Cedar Point Pleasure Company. The company remained static yet exciting for almost 100 years.Then, in 1978, Cedar Point acquired Valleyfair. The name Cedar Fair was then derived from the names of both  of these parks, "Cedar" coming from Cedar Point and "Fair" coming from Valleyfair. Cedar Fair was founded in 1983 and went public on April 29, 1987.

The first acquisition of the new Cedar Fair company came in 1992 when Cedar Fair bought Dorney Park. Cedar Fair next bought Worlds of Fun in 1995. One of the company's biggest acquisitions came in 1997 when Cedar Fair bought Knott's Berry Farm from the Knott family. This marked the first time Cedar Fair operated a year-round amusement park. Several new water park properties named Knott's Soak City have since opened around Southern California including Buena Park in 1999, Chula Vista in 2000 and Palm Springs in 2001. 

Michigan's Adventure in Muskegon, Michigan and was purchased for $27.6 million in 2001 and then Cedar Fair opened their first indoor water park in November 2004, Castaway Bay. It replaced the former Radisson Hotel and is open year-round.

The biggest acquisitions have occurred more recently starting in 2004 with the acquisition of Six Flags World of Adventure for $145 million and then changed its name back to it's original name - Geauga Lake. In 2011, however, the water park's name was shortened to Wildwater Kingdom.

On May 22, 2006, Cedar Fair announced they had outbid competitors and intended to purchase all five parks in the Paramount Parks chain, including Star Trek: The Experience at the Las Vegas Hilton and the management agreement of Bonfante Gardens. On June 30, 2006, Cedar Fair announced that it had completed its acquisition of Paramount Parks from CBS Corporation in a cash transaction valued at $1.24 billion USD. Shortly following the transfer of ownership, Cedar Fair began the process of integrating the two companies by eliminating the Paramount Parks corporate office in Charlotte, North Carolina and transferring all decision-making to Cedar Fair's offices in Sandusky, Ohio. With the purchase of the Paramount Parks, Cedar Fair changed its name to Cedar Fair Entertainment Company.

Cedar Fair began removing the Paramount name and logo from the parks in January 2007. The names of the parks were changed back to their original pre-Paramount names with the Cedar Fair corporate logo added. They also changed Bonfante Gardens to Gilroy Gardens. All these changes were made before the beginning of the 2007 season.

On June 20, 2011 Cedar Fair announced that Matt Ouimet would become the new CEO of Cedar Fair. Previously Mr Ouimet was employed by The Walt Disney Company for 17 years and served as president of Disney Cruise Line and president of the Disneyland Resort.

Cedar Fair launched new websites for their parks in 2012 as well as a new marketing campaign, Thrills Connect. On November 20, 2012, Cedar Fair announced they had sold its Knott's Soak City: San Diego location to SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment. About nine months later, Cedar Fair announced it had sold its Knott's Soak City: Palm Springs location to CNL Lifestyle Properties.

​My Perspective

For anyone who has read a few of the articles I've written in the past knows my affinity toward media and entertainment companies. As I've written about many times before, I believe that in the future a majority of consumer's income will be spent on entertainment and therefore I expect that those companies able to produce that entertainment will be the beneficiaries of a large proportion of the population's consumption dollar. And I expect that to continue throughout the world as the world economies expand and grow their middle class.

Therefore, companies like Cedar Fair are very appealing to me. But I also like to buy companies when they're on sale. While I wouldn't classify the current price as expensive, I wouldn't classify it as cheap either. I would like to buy this stock closer to a P/E of 20 which would put the price closer to $52 per share. That would also raise the one year estimated return above 25% and would make this security very appealing. Add in a 5% dividend growing at 10% per year and this company could end up being a very lucrative investment.

I intend to start a position in this company at a price somewhere between $52 and $55 per share. As always, I intend to start with a small position, add to that position through dividend reinvestment, the sale of call options and additional open market purchases as price dictates.
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0 Comments

Tyson Foods Update

6/13/2016

0 Comments

 
Tyson Foods is up 13% since I last reviewed it five months ago on 14 January 2016 (you can review the article at Tyson Foods and see more detailed information on the company) and it keeps showing up when I screen for buy candidates. So I thought I'd take another look at the company's fundamentals and technicals to see if it's still the bargain it was in January. 
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​Tyson Foods, Inc. operates as a food company worldwide. It operates through four segments: Chicken, Beef, Pork, and Prepared Foods. The company raises and processes chickens into fresh, frozen, and value-added chicken products; processes live fed cattle and live market hogs; and fabricates dressed beef and pork carcasses into primal and sub-primal meat cuts, as well as case ready beef and pork, and fully-cooked meats. It also supplies poultry breeding stock; sells allied products, such as hide and meats; and manufactures and markets frozen and refrigerated food products, including pepperoni, bacon, breakfast sausage, turkey, lunchmeat, hot dogs, pizza crusts and toppings, flour and corn tortilla products, desserts, appetizers, prepared meals, ethnic foods, soups, sauces, side dishes, meat dishes, breadsticks, and processed meats. Tyson Foods, Inc. offers its products primarily under the Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Sara Lee, Ball Park, Wright, Aidells, and State Fair brands, as well as Ball Park, Van's, Chef Pierre pies, Aidells, Gallo Salame, and Golden Island premium jerky brands. The company sells its products through its sales staff to grocery retailers, grocery wholesalers, meat distributors, warehouse club stores, military commissaries, industrial food processing companies, chain restaurants or their distributors, live markets, international export companies, and domestic distributors, as well as through independent brokers and trading companies. Tyson Foods, Inc. was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Springdale, Arkansas.
​(Summary) (Company) (Chart)
12 June 2016
Price $60.57 (+13.04%)
1yr Target $75.27 (+36.63%)
Analysts 11
Dividend $0.60
Payout Ratio 16.17% (-20.47%)

1yr Cap Gain 24.26%
Yield 0.99%
1yr Tot Return 25.25%

EPS (ttm) $3.71 (+25.76%)
EPS next yr $4.60 (+16.45%)
​Forward P/E 13.16
​EPS next 5yr 18.20% (+47.24%)
1yr Price Support $83.72 (+71.48%)

​P/E 16.33 (-10.08%)
PEG 0.90 (-38.78%)
Beta 0.29 (-27.5%)
Market Cap $22.44 Bil (+15.01%)
Revenues $38.90 Bil (-5.98%)
Earnings $1.49 Bil (+22.13%)
Profit Margin 3.83% (+30.27%)

1yr EarnGR 24.47%
3yr EarnGR 22.88%
5yr EarnGR 7.44%
1yr DivGR 50.00%
3yr DivGR 43.69%
5yr DivGR 30.25%
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Quick Ratio 0.70 (0.00%)
Current Ratio 1.90 (+26.66%)
Debt/Equity 0.65 (-5.80%)
ROA 6.50% (+25.00%)
ROE 15.40% (+19.37%)
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12 January 2016
Price $53.58
1yr Target $55.09
Analysts 11
Dividend $0.60
Payout Ratio 20.33%

1yr Cap Gain 2.81%
Yield 1.11%
1yr Tot Return 3.92%

EPS (ttm) $2.95
EPS next yr $3.95
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EPS next 5yr 12.36%
1yr Price Support $48.82

​P/E 18.16
PEG 1.47
Beta 0.40
Market Cap $19.51 Bil
Revenues $41.37 Bil
Earnings $1.22 Bil
Profit Margin 2.94%

1yr EarnGR 24.47%
3yr EarnGR 22.88%
5yr EarnGR 7.44%
1yr DivGR 36.36%
3yr DivGR 32.45%
5yr DivGR 18.57%
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Quick Ratio 0.70
Current Ratio 1.50
Debt/Equity 0.69
ROA 5.20%
ROE 12.90%
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My Perspective

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Tyson Food's fundamentals look even better today that they did six months ago, but even six months ago it looked pretty good. It's up over 13% in the last six months and that's even after the recent pullback in the price of the shares. But even a 13% increase is a pretty good return for anyone's portfolio. Look a little closer at the numbers today and it looks like it's going to move even higher over the next year.

​Almost everything looks great here. Earnings are moving higher. Earnings growth is moving higher. Profit margins are increasing. The payout ratio is falling. The current ratio is climbing while debt is falling. Returns on assets and equity are moving higher. The only black mark on the numbers above is that revenues have declined since the last review. I believe that may be the cause of the recent pullback and it may take a little more research to understand what's going on. Everything else looks excellent and the stock should experience little resistance below $70 per share (for a 16% return). 

This is a company that continues to grow within my portfolio and I expect to increase my position significantly over the next few weeks and months. The recent stock pullback is creating an opportunity to own a great company at a reduced price. And I don't think this opportunity will last long.

​I believe that sales of chicken meat are increasing as individuals become more conscious of their dietary intake and move away from beef toward chicken and pork for protein. I don't know if this is a permanent change but it has been ongoing for some time. And Tyson Foods has been a beneficiary of this change.

As always, I will continue to add to my position through dividend reinvestment, the sale of call options, and additional accumulation on the open market. 

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0 Comments

Unique Fabricating

6/9/2016

0 Comments

 
Unique Fabricating is a small company out of Auburn Hills, MI, operating primarily in the auto parts industry with additional sales in the appliance, HVAC, and water heater industries. And while it's been a public company for only a little more than a year, it's expected to grow earnings at 21% per year for the next 5 years. It also pays a nice dividend that should grow with its earnings while it continues to pay down debt. 
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​Unique Fabricating, Inc. engineers and manufactures multi-material foam, rubber, and plastic components utilized in noise, vibration, and harshness (NVH), acoustical management, water and air sealing, decorative, and other functional applications. It supplies die cut non-metallic materials and components, which are used in applications, such as air and water sealing, insulation, NVH performance, and BSR conditions; thermoformed and compression molded products, including HVAC air ducts, door watershields, evaporator liners, console bin mats, fender insulators, and others; and fusion molded products comprising exterior mirror seals, cowl-to-hood seals, cowl-to-fender seals, and other products for NVH management and body sealing applications. The company sells its products to original equipment manufacturers and suppliers in the automotive, appliance, water heater and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning industries in North America. Unique Fabricating, Inc. was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Auburn Hills, Michigan.
​(Summary) (Company) (Chart)
​5 June 2016
Price $13.68
1yr Target $15.75
Analysts 2
Dividend $0.60
Payout Ratio 92.30%

1yr Cap Gain 15.13%
Yield 4.38%
1yr Tot Return 19.51%
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P/E 21.11
PEG 1.01
Beta ---
EPS (ttm) $0.65
EPS next yr $1.13
​Forward P/E 12.11
EPS next 5yr 21.00%
1yr Price Support $23.73
​
​Market Cap $132.70 Mil
Revenues $150.90 Mil
Earnings $5.70 Mil
Profit Margin 3.77%

Quick Ratio 1.60
Current Ratio 2.30
Debt/Equity 0.69
​1yr RevGR ---
3yr RevGR ---
5yr RevGR ---

1yr EarnGR ---
3yr EarnGR ---
5yr EarnGR ---

​1yr DivGR ---
3yr DivGR ---
5yr DivGR ---

ROA 5.70%
ROE 13.30%
​

​Operations

Unique is engaged in the engineering and manufacture of multi-material foam, rubber, and plastic components utilized in noise, vibration and harshness, acoustical management, water and air sealing, decorative and other functional applications. The Company combines a long history of organic growth with some more recent strategic acquisitions that diversifies both product capabilities and markets served.

Unique serves North American automotive and heavy duty truck, appliance, water heater and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) markets. Sales are conducted directly to major automotive and heavy duty truck, appliance, water heater and HVAC OEMs, or indirectly to OEMs through the Tier 1 suppliers of these OEMs. The Company has its principal executive offices in Auburn Hills, Michigan and has sales, engineering and production facilities in Auburn Hills and Concord, MI, LaFayette, GA, Louisville, KY, Evansville, In, Ft. Smith, AR, Murfreesboro, TN (through January 2016), Bryan, OH, Monterrey, Mexico, and Queretaro, Mexico.

Unique derives the majority of its net sales from the sales of foam, rubber and plastic automotive products using a variety of manufacturing processes including die cutting, compression molding, thermoforming, fusion molding and RIM molded polyurethane. By sealing out air noise and water intrusion, and by providing sound absorption and blocking, Unique’s products improve the interior comfort of a vehicle, increasing perceived vehicle quality and the overall experience of its passengers. Unique’s products improve thermal characteristics, reduce noise, and prolong the equipment life of appliances, water heaters and HVAC systems. 

Appliance, HVAC, and Water Heater Industries

Unique is a leading provider of fabricated, non-metallic components to a diverse group of OEMs and tiered suppliers in the appliance, HVAC, and water heater industries. These sales represented approximately 16.0% of net sales for the year ended January 3, 2016. These components are primarily manufactured from foam, adhesives, fiberglass, rubber and board-back material. The company has extensive materials, engineering and fabrication expertise and deliver custom designed, innovative solutions to their our customers. Their component solutions primarily consist of products used in gasketing, heat deflection, packaging, insulation, water seals, noise reduction and vibration control.

Demand for these end-market products is largely driven by the health of the housing sector. The National Association of Home Builders forecasts that there will be approximately 1.3 million new housing starts in 2016, approximately 13% more than 1.1 million new housing starts during 2015. Unique believes that the appliance, HVAC, and water heater industries are currently primed for favorable growth.

The US appliance industry is forecast to show modest growth through 2017, as new and existing home sales, as well as home improvement spending, both of which have a direct impact on appliance industry sales, continue to show upward momentum. According to the latest Appliance Magazine’s Annual US Appliance Industry Forecast, forecasted unit shipments for this industry in the United States are expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 3.5% through 2017 to reach approximately 46.4 million units per year, which would put the industry close to its peak sales years of 2004 – 2006. The company believes that these benefits will increase the demand for their products from their clients such as GE and Whirlpool.

The HVAC and water heater industries are also poised to benefit from the gains in the housing and home improvement markets. According to the same Appliance Magazine Industry Forecast, shipments of heating and cooling units in the US are expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 2.4% through 2017, while shipments of residential and commercial water heaters are expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 2.6% through 2017. Unique believes this trend will increase the demand for their products from their clients such as AO Smith, Rheem and Trane. 

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Products 

Unique’s primary products are identified by their manufacturing processes and fall into the following: die cut products, thermoformed/compression molded products and fusion molded products (see below).

Die Cut Products 

Unique is primarily a supplier of die cut non-metallic materials and components. These products have been the Company’s core business and they have developed over time through the company's technical expertise, broad customer base, strategic manufacturing footprint, diverse material selection and strong quality and delivery performance. Unique leverages its market position in die cutting by offering more highly engineered, higher value products and processes such as thermoforming, compression molding, fusion molding and RIM molded polyurethane. 

Thermoformed/Compression Molded Products 

In 2005, Unique began expanding its product offerings to include thermoformed and compression molded products. Unique leveraged its position as a manufacturer of core die cut products to gain traction with customers who wanted a single-source solution for other related products, such as thermoformed, compression molded and fusion molded components. The company recently added RIM polyuerethane components to its portfolio. 

Fusion Molded Products 

​In 2008, Unique began to expand its product portfolio to include fusion molded components through an exclusive supply relationship with Chardan Corp. In February 2014, Unique purchased the Chardan Business, bringing the fusion molding capability inhouse. Fusion molding is an innovative foam molding process used to manufacture precise three dimensional components that are lightweight and provide excellent thermal and acoustic performance. Primarily used for NVH management and body sealing applications, the fusion molded products are complementary to Unique’s other product lines and give Unique additional options to provide light-weighting and NVH management solutions to its customers. 
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​My Perspective

​This is an interesting company in the auto parts industry but it doesn't have much of a track record. It went from private to public just a little over a year ago. But it has a very nice dividend and an expectation of earnings growth of 21% over the next few years. Add in the fact that it has great coverage of its liabilities, moderate debt and an expectation that it could easily support its target price with a PEG less than one, and I think I ought to have a nice position in this company. 

I understand it's speculative and it doesn't have the track record of a dividend aristocrat, but it has a great start on possibly becoming one some day. That said, I think it's worth throwing a few dollars at this company, establish a position, and monitor the company for success. If it continues to perform as expected I expect to increase my position over time. If not, I expect I'll eventually simply sell it off and move on. But I think there's something more going on here and that makes me want to own this stock. 

I expect to start a position in the near future. As always, I'll start with a small position and then add to that position through dividend reinvestment and open market purchases (no options are offered with this security at this time). 

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0 Comments

Big Five Biotech

6/8/2016

0 Comments

 
The BioTechnology Industry is dominated by the Big Five Biotech companies including Amgen, Biogen, Celgene, Gilead Sciences, and Regeneron. As a dividend growth investor, my investment strategy limits my interest in just two of these companies - Amgen and Gilead Sciences. Of these two, I only have a position in one of them - Gilead Sciences. But I think that's about to change in the very near future.

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​Amgen Inc. engages in discovering, developing, manufacturing, and delivering human therapeutics worldwide. It offers products for the treatment of illness in the areas of oncology/hematology, cardiovascular, inflammation, bone health, nephrology, and neuroscience. The company's principal products include Neulasta, a pegylated protein to decrease the incidence of infection associated with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia in cancer patients; NEUPOGEN, a recombinant-methionyl human granulocyte colony-stimulating factor for reducing the incidence of infection for patients with non-myeloid malignancies; and Enbrel to treat rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, and psoriatic arthritis. Its principal products also comprise EPOGEN to treat a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells caused by chronic kidney disease (CKD) in patients on dialysis; Aranesp for treating anemia; XGEVA for the prevention of skeletal-related events; Prolia to treat postmenopausal women with osteoporosis; Repatha for the treatment of high cholesterol; and Sensipar/Mimpara products for use in the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism in CKD patients on dialysis. The company's other marketed products include Kyprolis, a proteasome inhibitor to treat patients with multiple myeloma and small-cell lung cancer; Nplate, a thrombopoietic compound; Vectibix, a human monoclonal antibody; and BLINCYTO for the treatment of patients with Philadelphia chromosome-negative relapsed or refractory B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia. It also develops various products that are in various clinical trials. The company serves pharmaceutical wholesale distributors; and physicians or their clinics, dialysis centers, hospitals, and pharmacies, as well as consumers. It has collaborative agreements with Xencor, Inc.; UCB; Novartis AG; and Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals Inc. Amgen Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)
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​5 June 2016
Price $159.19
1yr Target $185.31
Analysts 16
Dividend $4.00
Payout Ratio 42.32%

1yr Cap Gain 16.40%
Yield 2.51%
1yr Tot Return 18.91%
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P/E 16.85
PEG 2.01
Beta 0.82
​

​EPS (ttm) $9.45
EPS next yr $12.14
​Forward P/E 13.11
EPS next 5yr 8.37%
1yr Price Support $101.61
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​Market Cap $119.59 Bil
Revenues $22.16 Bil
Earnings $7.22 Bil
Profit Margin 32.58%

Quick Ratio 4.70
Current Ratio 5.00
Debt/Equity 1.20
​

​1yr RevGR 7.96%
3yr RevGR 7.77%
5yr RevGR 7.55%

1yr EarnGR 35.22%
3yr EarnGR 17.76%
5yr EarnGR 13.59%

​1yr DivGR 28.62%
3yr DivGR 29.21%
5yr DivGR ---

ROA 10.00%
ROE 25.70%
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Gilead Sciences, Inc., a research-based biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines in areas of unmet medical needs in North America, South America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. The company's products include Genvoya, Stribild, Complera/Eviplera, Atripla, Truvada, Viread, Emtriva, Tybost, and Vitekta for the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in adults; and Harvoni, Sovaldi, Viread, and Hepsera products for the treatment of liver diseases. It also offers Zydelig, a PI3K delta inhibitor, in combination with rituximab, for the treatment of certain blood cancers; Letairis, an endothelin receptor antagonist for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension; Ranexa, a tablet used for the treatment of chronic angina; Lexiscan/Rapiscan injection for use as a pharmacologic stress agent in radionuclide myocardial perfusion imaging; Cayston, an inhaled antibiotic for the treatment of respiratory systems in cystic fibrosis patients; and Tamiflu, an oral antiviral capsule for the treatment and prevention of influenza A and B. In addition, the company provides other products, such as AmBisome, an antifungal agent to treat serious invasive fungal infections; and Macugen, an anti-angiogenic oligonucleotide to treat neovascular age-related macular degeneration. Further, it has product candidates in various stages of development for the treatment of HIV/AIDS and liver diseases, such as hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus; inflammation/oncology; serious cardiovascular; and respiratory conditions, as well as diabetic nephropathy and ebola. The company markets its products through its commercial teams and/or in conjunction with third-party distributors and corporate partners. Gilead Sciences, Inc. has collaboration agreements with Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, Janssen R&D Ireland, Japan Tobacco Inc., and Galapagos NV. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)
​

​5 June 2016
Price $86.15
1yr Target $111.05
Analysts 19
Dividend $1.88
Payout Ratio 16.08%

1yr Cap Gain 28.90%
Yield 2.18%
1yr Tot Return 31.08%
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P/E 7.37
PEG 11.43
Beta 1.09
​

​EPS (ttm) $11.69
EPS next yr $12.31
​Forward P/E 7.00
EPS next 5yr 0.65%
1yr Price Support $8.00
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​Market Cap $114.74 Bil
Revenues $32.84 Bil
Earnings $17.34 Bil
Profit Margin 52.80%

Quick Ratio 1.60
Current Ratio 1.80
Debt/Equity 1.70
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​1yr RevGR 31.13%
3yr RevGR 49.23%
5yr RevGR 32.64%

1yr EarnGR 62.04%
3yr EarnGR 92.37%
5yr EarnGR 32.64%

​1yr DivGR ---
3yr DivGR ---
5yr DivGR ---

ROA 36.60%
ROE 105.70%
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​My Perspective

I believe that BioTechnology simply has to be part of my portfolio because I believe the products that this industry is producing really are the future of medicine. That said, I think all five of the Big Five Biotechs may be worth accumulating. But my philosophy on investing won't let me invest in companies that don't pay a dividend. So I'm only interested in the two listed here - Amgen and Gilead Sciences. 

That's not to say others may be interested in the other three companies. It's just that the discipline placed on my investing strategy prohibits me from investing companies that don't pay a dividend. Of the two above, I only own shares of Gilead Sciences but that's about to change. I intend to start a position in Amgen very soon because the strength of the company's revenues, earnings and dividends is just too much to ignore. 

I can't imagine not having both Technology as well as BioTechnology as part of my portfolio. I'm a strong believer in the fact that no matter how much money people spend on technology and consumer staples, when it comes to their health they'll spend everything they have if there's any chance at all that they'll get well. And that means that the BioTech Industry will produce an enormous amount of wealth in the years ahead. 

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0 Comments

World Wrestling Entertainment

6/6/2016

0 Comments

 
World Wrestling Entertainment's flagship program WWE Raw is the primary engine driving the top and bottom line growth of the company. It's a three-hour live show on the USA Network that draws 3 to 4 million viewers each Monday night. It's other major program, Smackdown, hasn't drawn an equal number of viewers. But that's about to change. Beginning on July 19, Smackdown will air live and this could end up being a huge payoff for holders of the company's shares.   

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​World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc., an integrated media and entertainment company, engages in the sports entertainment business in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through Network, Television, Home Entertainment, Digital Media, Live Events, Licensing, Venue Merchandise, WWEShop, and WWE Studios segments. It operates WWE Network, a live streaming network that offers pay-per-view events, original programming, and video-on-demand library; and produces television programming, reality shows, and other programming, as well as produces content via home entertainment platforms, including DVD, Blu-Ray, subscription, and transactional on-demand outlets. The company also offers broadband and mobile content through its Websites and third party Websites; produces live events; and licenses various WWE themed products, such as video games, toys, apparel, books, and music. In addition, it designs, sources, markets, and distributes various WWE-branded products, such as T-shirts, belts, caps, and other novelty items; operates WWEShop, an e-commerce storefront; and WWE Studios that produce and distribute filmed entertainment content, such as movies for theatrical, home entertainment, and/or television release. World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)
5 June 2016
Price $17.68
1yr Target $21.08
Analysts 7
Dividend $0.48
Payout Ratio 129.72%

1yr Cap Gain 19.23%
Yield 2.71%
1yr Tot Return 21.94%
​
P/E 48.04
PEG 2.40
Beta 0.82
​
EPS (ttm) $0.37
EPS next yr $0.59
​Forward P/E 30.02
EPS next 5yr 20.00%
1yr Price Support $11.80
​
​Market Cap $1.34 Bil
Revenues $653.70 Mil
Earnings $28.30 Mil
Profit Margin 4.32%

Quick Ratio 1.40
Current Ratio 1.40
Debt/Equity 0.09
​
1yr RevGR 21.40%
3yr RevGR 10.70%
5yr RevGR 6.64%

1yr EarnGR ---
3yr EarnGR -8.59%
5yr EarnGR -14.74%

​1yr DivGR 0.00%
3yr DivGR 0.00%
5yr DivGR -19.73%

ROA 7.00%
ROE 13.30%
​
Operations
WWE is an integrated media and entertainment company. They have been involved in the sports entertainment business for over 30 years, and have developed WWE into one of the most popular brands in entertainment today. The company develops unique and creative content centered around their wrestling talent and then present it via their wholly owned subscription network (“WWE Network”), television, online and at their live events. Their WWE Network, live and televised events, digital media, home entertainment, consumer products and feature films provide significant cross-promotion and marketing opportunities.

The company's WWE Network launched domestically on February 24, 2014, internationally on August 12, 2014 and is currently available internationally in over 180 countries. This launch transformed the company and has changed the distribution of the company's pay-per-view events by distributing them through their digital platforms.

As in other professional wrestling promotions, WWE shows are not legitimate contests, but purely entertainment-based, featuring storyline-driven, scripted, and choreographed matches, though they often include moves that can put performers at risk of injury if not performed correctly. This was first publicly acknowledged by WWE's owner Vince McMahon in 1989 to avoid taxes from athletic commissions. Since the 1980s, WWE publicly branded their product as sports entertainment, which is considered to acknowledge the product's roots in competitive sport and dramatic theater.

The company's majority owner is its chairman and CEO, Vince McMahon. Along with his wife Linda, children Shane and Stephanie, and son-in-law Paul Levesque (known professionally as Triple H), the McMahon family holds approximately 70% of WWE's equity and 96% of the voting power. As of August 2014, due to ongoing problems with the company, Eminence Capital, a New York-based hedge fund, acquired 9.6% stake of WWE while the McMahon family retains 90.4% interest.
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​My Perspective

This company's financials being tied so closely to the McMahon family may be just too complicated for my type of investing but others may find this acceptable for their own investing style. I believe things may be turning around with the company and as long as revenues continue to increase, earnings and dividends should eventually increase also. But I need more evidence of a turn around prior to investing my own funds. For me there's just too many other investments for the limited amount of funds I have available.  
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Money Trees

6/3/2016

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My strategy has always been to find a company that has been increasing its revenues, earnings and dividends and then invest a small amount of money in the shares of that company. I view this as similar to a tree farmer planting a small seed in the ground. As time goes by, and with the proper care, that tiny seed will grow into a very large tree. For me, that care that I provide for my investments is the reinvestment of dividends back into the stock position that I’m holding, the sale of call options to generate funds for additional purchases and adding to that position through open market acquisitions. As long as that investment is healthy, I continue to monitor it and to add to it. If it starts to die from within, I eliminate the seedling and plant a different type of tree. 

It’s a simple strategy of adding to your better trees and cutting down your sick or dying trees. The reason this is done this way isn’t to gloat over the successful trees or to mourn over the dying trees, it’s to keep the entire forest healthy. It’s important to grow the most healthy money trees you can in order to increase and expand the forest further than originally thought possible. 

For anyone new to this website, I actually do the things I write about. Some of my investments have been more successful than others, but it’s essential that mistakes are recognized and dealt with as early as possible and that successes are allowed to grow larger. It’s from these successes, the strong trees, that additional new seedlings can be planted and grown. 

A lot of investors concentrate on owning and concentrating on just a few securities at a time. There’s merit to that method because it allows the investor to focus only on those few investments and perhaps use volume to increase their successes. But for me it’s a matter of analyzing stocks and taking small positions. And then growing them. 

Once established, I monitor those positions for growth and success. If the company’s revenues, earnings and dividends continue to grow, I continue to grow my position. And as each position in turn becomes more and more successful over time, I end up with a forest of money trees bearing the maximum fruit. 

And I love it when those lovely leaves start to fall toward me.
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Self Storage Companies

6/1/2016

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In the world of industrial real estate investment trusts (REIT), self-storage is one of the more mundane areas of investing. It has none of the sex appeal of an office building or a shopping mall, but they’re all around us. They’re warehouses or walk-ins filled with cubicles where everyone keeps their “stuff” that no longer fits into their homes, offices or garages. And even though this mundane business is about as unassuming of an industry as any investor can find, it turns out that self storage is a solid investment and often does better than most other kinds of real estate investments.

That’s because in both up and down economies there is always a need for more storage space. In 2015 the stock market we more or less flat while equity REITs were up, and equity REITs specializing in storage were up on average 40%.
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One trend affecting the self-storage sector is the retirement of baby boomers, which is leading to a shift toward home downsizing. After they sell their four-bedroom homes for smaller retirement homes, they often want to store their excess possessions for use in a second or vacation home.

Another trend is the continuing migration of people away from the rust belt and into the Sun Belt, for both workers and retirees. This often results in excess “stuff” that needs to be stored until decisions about it’s disposition can be made. 

Another trend is that small businesses have started to use self-storage as a place to store excess inventory for less money than maintaining a warehouse.

One of the advantages of investing in self-storage is that this type of real estate requires less capital outlay that other types of commercial real estate. It also requires very little maintenance. Usually all that’s typically needed is to sweep out the empty unit. Break even for self-storage units is only approximately 45% occupancy which is extremely low. 

In addition, self-storage is a normally a small operation and therefore it is a fragmented industry ripe for consolidation by larger, publicly owned operations. Public REITs are buying these small operations and bringing in economies of scale for easier marketing and better recruitment of renters.

This industry may be a bit overvalued at this point but the industry doesn’t look like it’s slowing down any time soon. And with population and economic trends in place, this may be a wealth creator for many years to come.
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​​Public Storage is an equity real estate investment trust. It engages in the acquisition, development, ownership, and operation of self-storage facilities in the United States and Europe. The firm's self-storage facilities offer storage spaces for lease on a month-to-month basis for personal and business use. It also has interests in commercial properties containing commercial and industrial rental space and ancillary operations, which include reinsurance of policies against losses to goods stored by its self-storage tenants and and retail operations comprising merchandise sales. Public Storage was founded in 1971 and is based in Glendale, California.
​(Summary) (Company) (Chart)
30 May 2016
Price $255.23
1yr Target $254.40
Analysts 15
Dividend $7.20
Payout Ratio 115.56%

1yr Cap Gain -0.33%
Yield 2.82%
1yr Tot Return 2.49%
​
P/E 40.97
PEG 2.41
Beta 0.65
​
EPS (ttm) $6.23
EPS next yr $7.75
​Forward P/E 32.93
EPS next 5yr 17.00%
1yr Price Support $131.75
​
​Market Cap $44.06 Bil
Revenues $2.43 Bil
Earnings $1.08 Bil
Profit Margin 44.44%

Quick Ratio ---
Current Ratio ---
Debt/Equity 0.00
​
1yr RevGR 9.37%
3yr RevGR 8.83%
5yr RevGR 8.09%

1yr EarnGR 15.61%
3yr EarnGR 15.71%
5yr EarnGR 20.89%

​1yr DivGR 16.07%
3yr DivGR 13.74%
5yr DivGR 16.33%

ROA 11.10%
ROE 21.20%
​
Extra Space Storage, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. It engages in property management and development activities that include acquiring, managing, developing, and selling, as well as the rental of self-storage facilities. As of December 31, 2006, Extra Space Storage owned interests in 567 properties located in 32 states and Washington, D.C., as well as managed 74 properties owned by franchisees or third parties. As a REIT, the company would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was founded in 1977 and is based in Salt Lake City, Utah.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)
30 May 2016
Price $92.93
1yr Target $96.90
Analysts 15
Dividend $3.12
Payout Ratio 176.27%

1yr Cap Gain 4.27%
Yield 3.35%
1yr Tot Return 7.62%
​
P/E 52.44
PEG 1.92
Beta 0.78
​
EPS (ttm) $1.77
EPS next yr $2.61
​Forward P/E 35.67
EPS next 5yr 27.30%
1yr Price Support $71.25
​
​Market Cap $11.60 Bil
Revenues $838.50 Mil
Earnings $217.70 Mil
Profit Margin 25.96%

Quick Ratio ---
Current Ratio ---
Debt/Equity 1.72
​
1yr RevGR 20.87%
3yr RevGR 23.82%
5yr RevGR 22.68%

1yr EarnGR 1.96%
3yr EarnGR 10.90%
5yr EarnGR 39.05%

​1yr DivGR 23.75%
3yr DivGR 37.68%
5yr DivGR 49.49%

ROA 3.80%
ROE 10.30%
​
CubeSmart is an equity real estate investment trust. The firm invests in the real estate markets of the US. It engages in ownership, operation, acquisition and development of self-storage facilities. The firm was formerly known as U-Store-It Trust. CubeSmart was founded in July 2004 and is based in Malvern, Pennsylvania.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)
30 May 2016
Price $31.75
1yr Target $34.09
Analysts 11
Dividend $0.84
Payout Ratio 182.60%

1yr Cap Gain 7.37%
Yield 2.64%
1yr Tot Return 10.01%
​
P/E 69.63
PEG 9.04
Beta 0.70
​
EPS (ttm) $0.46
EPS next yr $0.82
​Forward P/E 38.96
EPS next 5yr 7.70%
1yr Price Support $6.34
​
​Market Cap $5.59 Bil
Revenues $459.70 Mil
Earnings $79.00 Mil
Profit Margin 17.18%

Quick Ratio ---
Current Ratio ---
Debt/Equity 0.77
​
1yr RevGR 17.92%
3yr RevGR 18.41%
5yr RevGR 17.35%

1yr EarnGR 300.00%
3yr EarnGR ---
5yr EarnGR ---

​1yr DivGR 25.45%
3yr DivGR 26.26%
5yr DivGR ---

ROA 2.60%
ROE 5.00%
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Sovran Self Storage, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT). It engages in the acquisition, ownership, and management of self-storage properties in the United States. The company's self-storage properties offer storage space to residential and commercial users, as well as offer outside storage for automobiles, recreational vehicles, and boats. As of February 15, 2007, it owned and managed 328 properties, consisting of approximately 20.3 million net rentable square feet in 22 states. Sovran Self Storage has elected to be treated as a REIT for federal income tax purposes and would not be subject to income tax to the extent it distributes at least 90% of taxable income to its stockholders. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)
30 May 2016
Price $108.11
1yr Target $120.77
Analysts 11
Dividend $3.80
Payout Ratio 117.28%

1yr Cap Gain 11.71%
Yield 3.51%
1yr Tot Return 15.22%
​
P/E 33.39
PEG 3.93
Beta 0.78
​
EPS (ttm) $3.24
EPS next yr $3.99
​Forward P/E 27.10
EPS next 5yr 8.50%
1yr Price Support $33.91
​
​Market Cap $4.87 Bil
Revenues $380.30 Mil
Earnings $118.40 Mil
Profit Margin 31.13%

Quick Ratio ---
Current Ratio ---
Debt/Equity 0.61
​
1yr RevGR 12.42%
3yr RevGR 15.95%
5yr RevGR 16.38%

1yr EarnGR 18.35%
3yr EarnGR 18.90%
5yr EarnGR 16.38%

​1yr DivGR 18.27%
3yr DivGR 21.47%
5yr DivGR 12.88%

ROA 5.40%
ROE 9.60%
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National Storage Affiliates is a real estate investment trust. The firm invests in the real estate markets of top 100 metropolitan statistical areas across United States. It engages in ownership, operation, and acquisition of self storage facilities. National Storage Affiliates is based in Greenwood Village, Colorado.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)
30 May 2016
Price $21.24
1yr Target $21.75
Analyst 4
Dividend $0.80
Payout Ratio 320.00%

1yr Cap Gain 2.40%
Yield 3.76%
1yr Tot Return 6.16%
​
P/E 85.30
PEG 21.33
Beta ---
​
EPS (ttm) $0.25
EPS next yr $0.39
​Forward P/E 54.46
EPS next 5yr 4.00%
1yr Price Support $1.56
​
​Market Cap $488.63 Bil
Revenues $145.30 Mil
Earnings $14.60 Mil
Profit Margin 10.04%

Quick Ratio ---
Current Ratio ---
Debt/Equity 2.69
​
1yr RevGR ---
3yr RevGR ---
5yr RevGR ---

1yr EarnGR ---
3yr EarnGR ---
5yr EarnGR ---

​1yr DivGR ---
3yr DivGR ---
5yr DivGR ---

ROA 1.40%
ROE 6.20%
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​My Perspective

The Self Storage Industry is an industry that's quickly consolidating. This can be seen quite easily in the fundamentals listed above. Revenues, earnings as well as dividends are moving upward at a tremendous pace but the world already knows it. This fact can be seen by the P/Es and PEGs for each of the companies.

Any rational investor would like to be an investor in this industry and these companies but at these prices investors should already have their positions in place. As someone who doesn't already have a position in any of these companies, I wouldn't know where to start. They are all so expensive. But based on just a preliminary look at the numbers above I'd probably choose either Public Storage or Extra Space Storage, but I'd have to do a lot more analysis before I actually committed funds.

These companies are all too expensive for my type of investing. Other investors interested in this fast moving segment of the economy may find this information of use in their analysis. Unfortunately I believe that in the long term these investments will do very well but it may take a long time before the price of these stocks realign with fair value.  

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    I am an Individual Investor with specific interest in long term growth and then enhancing my returns with income from dividends and derivatives. I don't recommend stocks to anyone (it's a good way to lose friends) and no one reading this should misinterpret my blog as a recommendation for any type of investment. I am writing this solely for myself and my kids.

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