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Ideas and Strategies on Investing.

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Buying Walmart

7/13/2015

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Some companies have such a consistent and compelling dividend growth story that dividend growth investors will buy shares of that company regardless of the current price. Walmart just happens to be just one of those companies. And those dividend growth investors that have bought shares in Walmart have seen their dividends grow tremendously over the years. But if you look at their wealth, it's been a more volatile picture. 

Picture10 years of Dividend Growth
That's where the idea of total return makes more sense to me than simply dividend growth. I prefer to invest in companies that not only have a great dividend growth story but also a great total return story. 

I first identify those companies that have a consistent and exceptional dividend growth history over a lengthy period of time. I then look to see if those companies are expected to grow their stock price over the next year. For that information I turn to the analysts.

Other investors prefer to look at the stock's current P/E ratio to determine if the stock will grow over the following year. Both methods can be useful as long as you know the underlying assumptions of each method.

When looking at the difference between the current price and the projected target one year out, the assumption that I am making is that the analysts have done their due diligence and their projections are accurate. That obviously is not always the case. Often analysts provide projections with their own benefit in mind. This can sometimes be thought of as leading a stock. Those analysts exist but they are few and far between. Therefore, when I'm considering analysts projections I take into account the number of analysts that were averaged in order to calculate that projection. If I see three or fewer analysts, I'm somewhat sceptic about the projection. If I see five or more analyst, I'm more confident in the projection. 

For those investors that rely primarily on the P/E ratio, their assessment is a little different. They need to calculate the average P/E over a long period of time and then determine whether the current P/E is lower or higher than that average. If it's lower, the stock is considered inexpensive and the stock should be bought. If it's higher, the stock should be avoided. The assumption in this case is that the stock will always return to the mean and that nothing has structurally changed the business of the company which would affect the P/E ratio going forward.   

Both methods are effective and I tend to use them both. But personally I rely on analysts projections first and then look for confirmation in the P/E ratio. 

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Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. operates retail stores in various formats worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam’s Club. It operates discount stores, supermarkets, supercenters, hypermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, home improvement stores, specialty electronics stores, restaurants, apparel stores, drug stores, and convenience stores, as well as retail Websites, such as walmart.com and samsclub.com. The company’s stores offer meat, produce, deli, bakery, dairy, frozen foods, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, and floral and dry grocery; health and beauty aids, baby products, household chemicals, paper goods, and pet supplies; electronics, toys, cameras and supplies, photo processing services, cellular phones, cellular service plan contracts and prepaid services, movies, music, video games, and books; and pharmacy, optical, over-the-counter drugs, and clinical services. Its merchandise also include stationery, automotive accessories, hardware and paint, sporting goods, fabrics and crafts, and seasonal merchandise; apparel for women, girls, men, boys, and infants, as well as shoes, jewelry, and accessories; and home furnishings, housewares and small appliances, bedding, home décor, outdoor living, and horticulture products. The company also provides financial services and related products, including money orders, prepaid cards, wire transfers, money transfers, check cashing, and bill payment. In addition, it offers brand name merchandise, including hardgoods, softgoods, and selected private-label items, such as Member’s Mark and its own proprietary brands, such as Daily Chef and Simply Right. Further, the company operates banks that provide consumer financing programs. It operates approximately 11,000 stores under 72 banners in 27 countries; and e-commerce websites in 11 countries. The company was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Bentonville, Arkansas.
(Summary) (Company) (Daily Chart)

Price $73.12
1yr Target $80.24
No. of Analysts 21
1yr Cap Gain 9.73%
Dividend $1.96
Yield 2.68%
1yr Tot Return 12.41%
1yr EarnGR 3.48%
3yr EarnGR 3.72%
5yr EarnGR 6.36%
1yr DivGR 2.08%
3yr DivGR 7.14%
5yr DivGR 10.12%
Payout Ratio 39.87%
Market Cap $235.49 Bil
Beta 0.41
EPS (ttm) $4.89
EPS next yr $5.01
P/E 14.95
PEG 3.45
Forward P/E 14.61
Debt/Equity 0.66
ROA 9.70%
ROE 25.00%
ROI 14.60%
Sales $485.52 Bil
Income $15.84 Bil
Profit Margin 3.26%

My Perspective
PictureWalmart Weekly Chart
A year ago Walmart was paying a nice dividend and the analysts projections were that the company's stock would move higher over the following twelve months. That was great news for the type of investing I do. So I bought. As 2014 came to an end it became more and more obvious that the gains were being made over just a few months rather than over the entire twelve months. Recognizing that, I reduced the number of buys in Walmart stock to near zero by the end of that year. In 2015 I simply held my position and collected dividends, as most dividend growth investors do when a stock appears overbought. 

But as can be easily seen in the weekly chart, the stock has now fallen back into the low 70s where it was almost one year ago. Now there's many reasons for why the stock sits at this level and any google search can provide most of those reasons. For me, I'm just looking at the numbers above and I'm seeing a similar situation to the what I saw last year. 

Based on the information above, I'm once again buying shares of Walmart. But I'm well aware of and concerned about the slowing growth rates for both earnings as well as dividends. These are things that will have to be monitored closely. As a result I have started buying small amounts of Walmart and I will continue to buy and increase those buys as the numbers above improve. 

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Three Companies to Consider

7/9/2015

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The past will never guarantee the future, but when we're trying to predict the future, it's oftentimes the only data we have. So any metric I'd like my investments to meet are the metrics I screen for. And hopefully that screen brings up dozens of candidates for consideration. From that list I continue to zero in for the best of the best of the best. 

Below are three companies that are serious candidates for me to consider accumulating. All three of these have one year estimated price targets at least ten percent higher than their current price. And even though they pay a meager minimum dividend of only 1%, that dividend has a growth rate of at least twenty percent per year. That's a phenomenal growth rate and one that will make any investor rich in just a few years. 
 
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Amgen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. It focuses for the treatment of illness in the areas of oncology, hematology, inflammation, bone health, nephrology, cardiovascular, and general medicine. The company’s principal products include Neulasta, a pegylated protein to decrease the incidence of infection associated with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia in cancer patients; NEUPOGEN, a recombinant-methionyl human granulocyte colony-stimulating factor for reducing the incidence of infection as manifested by febrile neutropenia for patients with non-myeloid malignancies; and Enbrel to treat rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, and psoriatic arthritis in adult patients. Its principal products also comprise EPOGEN for the treatment of dialysis; Aranesp for treating anemia; XGEVA for the prevention of skeletal-related events; Prolia to treat postmenopausal women with osteoporosis; and Sensipar/Mimpara products for use in the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism in chronic kidney disease patients on dialysis. The company’s other marketed products include Kyprolis, a proteasome inhibitor to treat patients with multiple myeloma and small-cell lung cancer; Nplate, a thrombopoietic compound; Vectibix, a human monoclonal antibody; and BLINCYTO for the treatment of patients with Philadelphia chromosome-negative relapsed or refractory B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia. It also develops various products that are in various clinical trials. The company serves pharmaceutical wholesale distributors; and healthcare providers, including physicians or their clinics, dialysis centers, hospitals, and pharmacies, as well as consumers. It has collaborative agreements with AstraZeneca Plc; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; UCB; and Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals Inc. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California.
(Summary) (Company) (Daily Chart)
Price $152.31
1yr Target $179.47
No. of Analysts 17
1yr Cap Gain 17.83%
Dividend $3.16
Yield 2.07%
1yr Tot Return 19.90%
1yr EarnGR 0.90%
3yr EarnGR 18.16%
5yr EarnGR 8.23%
1yr DivGR 29.70%
3yr DivGR 41.25%
5yr DivGR ---
Payout Ratio 42.64%
Market Cap $115.80 Bil
Beta 0.54
EPS (ttm) 7.41$
EPS next yr $10.56
P/E 20.55
PEG 1.84
Forward P/E 14.43
Debt/Equity 1.14
ROA 8.20%
ROE 22.40%
ROI 10.20%
Sales $20.58 Bil
Income $5.71 Bil
Profit Margin 27.74%
Amgen's double digit one year estimated capital gain is always a desirable attribute when evaluating possible investments but as a dividend growth investor I'm particularly interested in companies that pay at least a 2% dividend growing faster than inflation. Amgen's dividend growth is phenomenal despite the fact that the dividend hasn't been paid for very long. I'd prefer to have a company that has a P/E ratio below twenty but based on forward projections, the P/E ratio will fall to 14.43 next year which is well within my thresholds. The last thing I'd like to see is a much lower debt to equity level. 
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The Boeing Company designs, develops, manufactures, sells, services, and supports commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, human space flight, and launch systems and services worldwide. The company operates in five segments: Commercial Airplanes, Boeing Military Aircraft, Network & Space Systems, Global Services & Support, and Boeing Capital. The Commercial Airplanes segment develops, produces, and markets commercial jet aircraft for various passenger and cargo requirements, as well as provides related support services to the commercial airline industry. This segment also offers aviation services support, aircraft modifications, spares, training, maintenance documents, and technical advice to commercial and government customers. The Boeing Military Aircraft segment is involved in the research, development, production, and modification of manned and unmanned military aircraft and weapons systems for the global strike and vertical lift, and unmanned airborne systems programs, as well as mobility, surveillance, and engagement. The Network & Space Systems segment engages in the research, development, production, and modification of electronics and information solutions; strategic missile and defense systems; space and intelligence systems; and space exploration products. The Global Services and Support segment offers integrated logistics, including supply chain management and engineering support; maintenance, modification, and upgrades for aircraft; and training systems and government services, such as pilot and maintenance training. The Boeing Capital segment facilitates, arranges, structures, and provides financing solutions, such as equipment under operating leases, finance leases, notes and other receivables, assets held for sale or re-lease, and investments for its commercial airplanes customers. The Boeing Company was founded in 1916 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
(Summary) (Company) (Daily Chart)

Price $141.92
1yr Target $163.00
No. of Analysts 19
1yr Cap Gain 14.85%
Dividend $3.64
Yield 2.56%
1yr Tot Return 17.41%
1yr EarnGR 23.82%
3yr EarnGR 11.26%
5yr EarnGR 31.87%
1yr DivGR 42.20%
3yr DivGR 21.92%
5yr DivGR 13.03%
Payout Ratio 45.55%
Market Cap $98.14 Bil
Beta 0.97
EPS (ttm) $7.99
EPS next yr $9.29
P/E 17.76
PEG 1.43
Forward P/E 15.28
Debt/Equity 1.14
ROA 6.10%
ROE 51.50%
ROI 32.60%
Sales $92.45 Bil
Income $5.81 Bil
Profit Margin 6.28%
There's not much I can find wrong with The Boeing Company. The dividend is very reasonable and the fact that it has been increasing over the last few years without pushing the payout ratio above fifty percent is impressive. I like the P/E ratio and the expected rise in earnings next year which will only drive the P/E ratio lower. If there's a flaw here it's a debt to equity ratio above one. I personally dislike any debt at all but I understand the nature of their business and based upon past earnings increases as well as projected future earnings increases, I believe the debt is something the company can deal with successfully.
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The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer. It operates The Home Depot stores that sell various building materials, home improvement products, and lawn and garden products, as well as provide installation, home maintenance, and professional service programs to do-it-yourself, do-it-for-me, and professional customers. The company offers installation programs that include flooring, cabinets, countertops, water heaters, and sheds; and professional installation in various categories sold through its in-home sales programs, such as roofing, siding, windows, kitchen and bath refacing, furnaces, and central air systems, as well as act as a contractor to provide installation services to its do-it-for-me customers through third-party installers. It primarily serves professional remodelers, general contractors, repairmen, small business owners, and tradesmen. The company also sells its products through online. As of the February 1, 2015, the company had 2,269 stores located throughout the United States, including the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the territories of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Guam, Canada, and Mexico. The Home Depot, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia. 
(Summary) (Company) (Daily Chart)
Price $111.00
1yr Target $124.74
No. of Analysts 23
1yr Cap Gain 12.37%
Dividend $2.36
Yield 2.12%
1yr Tot Return 14.49%
1yr EarnGR 25.26%
3yr EarnGR 23.73%
5yr EarnGR 24.57%
1yr DivGR 21.95%
3yr DivGR 22.54%
5yr DivGR 17.05%
Payout Ratio 47.87%
Market Cap $144.19 Bil
Beta 1.05
EPS (ttm) $4.93
EPS next yr $6.03
P/E 22.52
PEG 1.67
Forward P/E 18.40
Debt/Equity 1.83
ROA 15.60%
ROE 65.30%
ROI 25.80%
Sales $84.38 Bil
Income $6.55 Bil
Profit Margin 7.76%

Everything I mentioned above about Boeing can be said about The Home Depot. The major difference looking at the numbers is that HD may be a little more consistent in their delivery (a good thing) but they have a lot  higher debt to equity (a bad thing).  Like Boeing, the dividend is very reasonable and the fact that it has been increasing over the last few years without pushing the payout ratio above fifty percent is impressive. I like the P/E ratio and the expected rise in earnings next year which will only drive the P/E ratio lower. But that high debt to equity ratio may become burdensome. I personally dislike any debt at all but I understand the nature of their business and based upon past earnings increases as well as projected future earnings increases, I believe the debt is something the company can deal with successfully.
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My Perspective

I think that all three of these companies have a place in my portfolio. None of them are cheap and having limited funds makes accumulating positions in all three rather difficult. But not impossible. I believe over time I will start small positions in each of these companies and then grow those positions over time. Of the three I believe I will initiate a position in The Boeing Company first, followed by a position in The Home Depot, and then finally a position in Amgen. In the end I believe I'll have three rock solid additions to my account that will continue to grow their dividend for years to come.  
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Corning

7/6/2015

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If you're working on a laptop or desktop you're probably looking at a Corning manufactured terminal. If you're on the internet, you're probably receiving data across fiber optic cables manufactured by Corning. When you're watching television your probably looking at a Corning manufactured display terminal. And if you're using a smart phone you're probably looking through Gorilla glass manufactured by Corning. We all have Corning manufactured products integrated into almost every part of our lives. 

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Corning Inc. manufactures specialty glasses, ceramics, and related materials worldwide. The company operates through five segments: Display Technologies, Optical Communications, Environmental Technologies, Specialty Materials, and Life Sciences. The Display Technologies segment manufactures glass substrates for active matrix liquid crystal displays (LCDs) that are used primarily in LCD televisions, notebook computers, and flat panel desktop monitors. The Optical Communications segment manufactures optical fiber and cable; and hardware and equipment products comprising cable assemblies, fiber optic hardware and connectors, optical components and couplers, closures, network interface devices, and other accessories. It also provides subscriber demarcation, connection, and protection devices; plant enclosures; and RF interconnects for the cable television industry. The Environmental Technologies segment manufactures ceramic substrates and filter products for emissions control in mobile and stationary, and gasoline and diesel applications. The Specialty Materials segment manufactures products that provide approximately 150 material formulations for glass, glass ceramics, and fluoride crystals. The Life Sciences segment develops, manufactures, and supplies scientific laboratory products, such as general labware and equipment, as well as specialty surfaces, media, and reagents for cell culture research, bioprocessing, genomics, drug discovery, microbiology, and chemistry. It also develops and produces various technologies, including the Corning HYPER platform of vessels for cell yields; Corning Microcarriers for cell scale-up, therapy, and vaccine applications; Corning CellBIND Surface, Matrigel, BioCoat, and Synthemax II surfaces; and Corning stemgro media. The company was formerly known as Corning Glass Works and changed its name to Corning Incorporated in April 1989. Corning Incorporated was founded in 1851 and is based in Corning, New York.
(Summary) (Company) (Daily Chart)
Price $19.70
1yr Target $23.63
No. of Analysts 15
1yr Cap Gain 19.94%
Dividend $0.48
Yield 2.43%
1yr Tot Return 22.37%
1yr EarnGR 29.10%
3yr EarnGR -0.94%
5yr EarnGR 6.21%
1yr DivGR 20.00%
3yr DivGR 14.31%
5yr DivGR 19.13%
Payout Ratio 26.96%

Market Cap $24.79 Bil
Beta 1.71
EPS (ttm) $1.78
EPS next yr $1.60
P/E 11.07
PEG 1.65
Forward P/E 12.28
Debt/Equity 0.17
ROA 9.30%
ROE 14.30%
ROI 4.00%
Sales $9.69 Bil
Income $2.48 Bil
Profit Margin 25.59%

My Perspective

Corning popped up on one of my screens simply because it's increased its dividend every year for the last 5 years. That's significant but looking a little closer at the dividend increases it can be seen that they're significant enough to result in double digit growth rates. Add in the fact that the stock price has dropped about 20% this year from near $25 per share to $19.70 per share, where it stands today. That results in a P/E ratio that's half the overall market's P/E.   

With low debt to equity, a decent profit margin, and a very nice one year estimated return on investment, I'm interested enough at the very minimum to monitor this stock on my watch list but I am more likely to just start a small position and then start to actively track it. Either way, there's something interesting here for someone interested in growing dividends. 

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When The Market Falls, DGIs Smile

7/5/2015

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When stock prices fall, as they have this last few weeks, Dividend Growth Investors begin to smile. A lot. And why? That's because when stock prices are going down, yields are going up. And for them yield and growth is always what matters most. 
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Click to Enlarge
They also know that the price of the stock doesn't affect the dividend because the dividend is based on, and paid each quarter out of, the company's earnings. And earnings aren't affected by the stock price's movement up or down. In fact, when dividends remain steady or improve while stock prices fall, dividend yields will increases proportionally. And dividend yield is where the dividend growth investors are focused when it comes to buying decisions. 
Dividend Growth Investors also keep a keen eye on the company's dividend growth rate as well as the dividend payout ratio, but the dividend yield is usually the most seductive.

Successful Dividend Growth Investors have learned, over the years, how to discover those unique companies that continually increase their dividends over a series of several years. They usually have their own individual rules on just how many years are needed, what’s the minimum acceptable yield that's needed, and what the minimum growth rate is needed in order to initiate a buy. So when the market falls, as it has for the last few weeks, dividend growth investors dust off their lists, check their accounts for excess funds, and get ready to go on a shopping spree. 

A falling market is a great time to be a Dividend Growth Investor. 
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0 Comments

Casey's One Year Later

7/2/2015

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About a year ago I wrote an article about Casey's General Store and its potential going forward. That article can be found in this website's "INDEX" under the title "Casey's General Stores" or by clicking here. That article has a lot more depth or background than you'll find in this article so I recommend visiting that article too. 

Today I'd like to look at the fundamentals and compare them to a year ago and see what's happened. Hopefully things look better this year because this is what I concluded last year in that article.

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"This appears to be an incredible opportunity for an investor to own stock in a company that is growing and expanding throughout the entire Mid West part of the US. They have a proven concept and they are way beyond the initial start up phase reducing the risk of buying into a "new" company. In addition, they are also far from saturating their markets and I expect them to expand beyond their current geographical location."

"Technically this looks like an opportune time to begin buying these shares and then to add to this position at this or a lower price. This company has a long history of increasing revenues, earnings, and especially dividends and companies like this are usually priced at a premium to the market. Currently this company is not." 

"I am looking to initiate a position in this company as soon as possible and then to add to that position over time. Any pullback in the price of this company would probably initiate a transfer of funds into this stock. This looks to be one of those companies that a dividend growth investor like myself will hold for many, many years."
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Casey’s General Stores, Inc. (CASY), together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey’s General Store name in 14 Midwestern states, primarily Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. Its stores offer a selection of food, including pizzas, donuts, and sandwiches; beverage and tobacco products; health and beauty aids; automotive products; and other nonfood items. The company also engages in the retail sale of gasoline or gasohol under the Casey’s name on a self-service basis. As of April 30, 2013, it operated approximately 1,749 stores. The company was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa. (Daily Chart) (Weekly Chart)

29 Jun 2014
Price $69.95
1yr Target $76.52
Analysts 9
1yr Cap Gain 9.39%
Dividend $0.80
Yield 1.14%
1yr Tot Return 10.53%

Market Cap $2.69 Bil
3yr EarnGR 15.88%
5yr EarnGR 15.61%
3yr DivGR 12.78%
5yr DivGR 19.13%
Payout Ratio 22.98%
Beta .67
EPS (ttm) $3.48
EPS next yr $4.02
P/E 20.10
PEG 2.61
Debt/Equity 1.23
ROA 6.30%
ROE 20.40%


1 Jul 2015
Price $96.77
1yr Target $99.48
Analysts 10
1yr Cap Gain 2.80%
Dividend $0.88
Yield 0.90%
1yr Tot Return 3.70%

Market Cap $3.76 Bil
3yr EarnGR %
5yr EarnGR %
3yr DivGR %
5yr DivGR %
Payout Ratio 19.04%
Beta 0.60
EPS (ttm) $4.62
EPS next yr $5.11
P/E 20.95
PEG 1.82
Debt/Equity 0.98
ROA 7.50%
ROE 22.10%


Conclusion

First thing to notice is that the price of the stock has moved up 38.34% in the last year. Anyone who bought stock in this company based upon the information in that article is probably pretty happy with themselves this year. For those individuals that buy stocks simply for the increasing dividend should also be pleased with themselves since Casey's increased their dividend by 10% since last year. That's way above the increase in inflation so those DGIs today have more purchasing power that they did just one year ago. 

Today, however, I'm not as excited about the stock as I was last year. With a dividend yield of less than 1% and an estimated one year capital gain of less than 3%, I think there are better investments for my money elsewhere. I'm extremely thankful for those tremendous gains this past year but without the possibility of similar gains this next year I just think it's time to move on.   

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    I am an Individual Investor with specific interest in long term growth and then enhancing my returns with income from dividends and derivatives. I don't recommend stocks to anyone (it's a good way to lose friends) and no one reading this should misinterpret my blog as a recommendation for any type of investment. I am writing this solely for myself and my kids.


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