Blog Archives

General Electric Bottoms Out

10/19/2017

There's no doubt General Electric has been in trouble for a very long time. Even if you don't know the story behind the fall, one look at the price chart and it's obvious. It hit a high of $31.66 in the summer of 2016 and has fallen ever since. I can't imagine any shareholder that's happy.

Today the CEO is gone and there's been a management shake up. Talk now is of a dividend cut. All that's bad news for current shareholders but it's great news for those on the sidelines with cash. All an investor has to do now is wait for the bottom and it's got to be near. Management insists they'll maintain the dividend but all managements say that just before the cut the dividend. And it most likely will happen with GE.

Looking at the numbers below, the revenues are starting to improve and earnings are starting to move higher for the first time in awhile. Those are both great signs but controlling the growth of dividends recently has helped the earnings turnaround. A dividend cut would help even more. With a forward P/E of under 14 and improving earnings, this company could quite easily hit its estimate of $28.00 next year for a nice return. But more importantly it could be the beginning of an extended move higher.

I certainly expect this to occur so I'm just waiting for that great moment to buy. I think the dividend cut will be the last shoe to fall and it's what I'm waiting for. It should be accompanied by an exhaustion pullback or capitulation and that will be the signal to begin accumulating shares.

General Electric Company operates as an infrastructure and technology company worldwide. Its Power segment offers gas and steam power systems; maintenance, service, and upgrade solutions; distributed power gas engines; water treatment, wastewater treatment, and process system solutions; and nuclear reactors, fuels, and support services. The company's Renewable Energy segment provides wind turbine platforms, and hardware and software; onshore and offshore wind turbines; and solutions, products, and services to hydropower industry. Its Oil & Gas segment offers surface and subsea drilling and production systems, and equipment for floating production platforms; and compressors, turbines, turboexpanders, reactors, industrial power generation, and auxiliary equipment. The company's Aviation segment designs and produces commercial and military aircraft engines, integrated digital components, and electric power and mechanical aircraft systems; and provides aftermarket services. Its Healthcare segment offers diagnostic imaging and clinical systems; products for drug discovery, biopharmaceutical manufacturing, and cellular technologies; and medical technologies, software, analytics, cloud solutions, and implementation services. The company's Transportation segment provides freight and passenger locomotives, and rail and support advisory services; and parts, integrated software solutions and data analytics, software-enabled solutions, mining equipment and services, and marine diesel and stationary power diesel engines and motors, as well as overhaul, repair and upgrade, and wreck repair services. Its Energy Connections & Lighting segment offers industrial, grid, power conversion, automation and control, lighting, and current solutions. The company's Capital segment provides industrial and energy financial services; and commercial aircraft leasing, financing, and consulting services. General Electric Company was founded in 1892 and is based in Boston, Massachusetts.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)

15 October 2017
Price $22.98
1yr Target $28.00
Analysts 15
Dividend $0.96
Payout Ratio 110.34%

1yr Cap Gain 21.84%
Yield 4.17%
1yr Tot Return 26.01%

P/E 26.35
PEG 2.83
Beta 1.16

EPS (ttm) $0.87
EPS next yr $1.66
Forward P/E 13.87
EPS next 5yr 9.32%
1yr Price Support $15.47

Market Cap $199.26 Bil
Revenues $119.57 Bil
Earnings $7.77 Bil
Profit Margin 6.49%

Quick Ratio ---
Current Ratio ---
Debt/Equity 1.81

1yr RevGR 5.37%
3yr RevGR 2.95%
5yr RevGR -3.34%

1yr EarnGR ---
3yr EarnGR -11.08%
5yr EarnGR -6.27%

1yr DivGR 1.08%
3yr DivGR 5.53%
5yr DivGR 8.80%

ROA 2.00%
ROE 9.50%

4 Comments

Walmart is Breaking Out

10/17/2017

0 Comments

Walmart broke out of a Darvas Box last week with support and resistance from $74 to $82. In fact it broke out of a previous $64 to $74 Darvas Box earlier in the spring as it broke through its 40 week moving average and continued to move higher. It's a classic upward trend movement and it continued higher last week. All this appears to be the result of recent acquisitions by Walmart as it attempts to compete more aggressively against Amazon. In fact it may be the only retailer large enough to compete successfully

The reason for all the excitement is Walmart's integration of JD.com which is expected to increase online sales for the retailer by 40% over the next year. And I think they can do it. In fact several analysts are estimating that the price of Walmart stock will eventually rise to $110 per share over the next 18 months. That's an almost 28% return. Add in the dividend and the total return exceeds 30%.

As a result, I'll be adding to my position in Walmart shares in the weeks and months ahead. Personally I think the time to buy these shares were last week as it broke above $82 but I'd really have to be nimble to have gotten these shares quickly. So my plan will be to put in a buy order at $83 per share to attempt to buy these shares on a pullback to support.

This often happens to companies as they get trapped into a new Darvas Box. While I can't predict the limits of any new box, a good estimate would be $82 to $90. That means for me a price of $86 is not where I'd want to buy. That would allow for a $4 profit potential and a $4 loss potential. That's not the ratio I would want. At $83 I'd have a potential loss of $1 and a potential profit of $7, and that's a great profit to loss ratio for entry. It also lowers my risk if I made a mistake and I'm wrong.

So I've placed these shares on the list of Best Ideas for this week. In fact I believe the analysts may be a little conservative and Walmart may achieve these benchmarks even earlier. Perhaps within the next 12 months.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. operates retail stores in various formats worldwide. It operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club. The company operates discount stores, supermarkets, supercenters, hypermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, home improvement stores, specialty electronics stores, apparel stores, drug stores, convenience stores, and membership-only warehouse clubs; and retail Websites, such as walmart.com and samsclub.com, as well as mobile commerce applications. It offers grocery products, including meat, produce, natural and organics, deli and bakery, dairy, frozen foods, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, floral and dry grocery, as well as consumables, such as health and beauty aids, baby products, household chemicals, paper goods, and pet supplies; and health and wellness products, which include pharmacy, optical services, clinical services, over-the-counter drugs, and other medical products. The company also provides electronics, cameras and supplies, photo processing services, cellular phones, cellular service plan contracts and prepaid service, movies, music, video games, and books; stationery, automotive, hardware and paint, sporting goods, and outdoor living and horticulture, as well as fabrics, crafts, and seasonal merchandise; apparel for women, girls, men, boys, and infants, as well as shoes, jewelry, and accessories; and home furnishings, housewares and small appliances, bedding, home decor, and toys. In addition, it offers fuel and financial services and related products, including money orders, prepaid cards, wire transfers, money transfers, check cashing, and bill payment. In addition, it offers brand name merchandise, including hardgoods, softgoods, and selected private-label items, such as Member's Mark. It operates 11,593 stores under 63 banners in 28 countries and e-commerce Websites in 11 countries. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Bentonville, Arkansas.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)

15 October 2017
Price $86.62
1yr Target $85.49
Analysts 29
Dividend $2.04
Payout Ratio 49.02%

1yr Cap Gain -1.31%
Yield 2.35%
1yr Tot Return 1.04%

P/E 20.84
PEG 4.43
Beta 0.32

EPS (ttm) $4.16
EPS next yr $4.62
Forward P/E 18.77
EPS next 5yr 4.70%
1yr Price Support $21.71

Market Cap $257.71 Bil
Revenues $490.01 Bil
Earnings $12.73 Bil
Profit Margin 2.59%

Quick Ratio 0.20
Current Ratio 0.80
Debt/Equity 0.62

1yr RevGR 0.77%
3yr RevGR 0.65%
5yr RevGR 1.70%

1yr EarnGR -4.16%
3yr EarnGR -4.24%
5yr EarnGR -0.63%

1yr DivGR 2.04%
3yr DivGR 2.06%
5yr DivGR 6.49%

ROA 6.30%
ROE 16.70%

0 Comments

The First 30 Minutes of the Trading Day

10/16/2017

1 Comment

The first 30 minutes of every trading day are the most dangerous minutes of the day for me. I generally don’t trade during this time.

I live in the Central Time Zone so for me that’s between 8:30 and 9:00 am. During this period there’s usually a rush of buy and sell orders that have been stacked up since the previous close by part time investors that spent the prior evening doing their research and putting in their buy and sell orders. It's a period in which prices can be managed the most, and usually to someone else's benefit. It also gives time for any imbalances to level out and real trading starts to occur.

I’m not worried about the long term traders that are putting in limit orders, I’m concerned with those traders that are reacting to last night’s news events. The ones that have been in the chat rooms the night before and discovered a level of "internet consensus" with what other traders are going to do when the market opens. They’re the dangerous ones.

During that first 30 minutes there’s often a disorderly push and pull among traders as those buys and sells come tumbling through in a disorderly manner. It usually takes about 15-20 minutes for the markets to rebalance and the professional traders start pushing the market up or down.

Once I begin to feel that the market has found an equilibrium I start to look for trend breakouts. These are literally intraday highs or lows and they signal which way the market or an individual stock is probably heading for the day. This literally tells me if I should execute a trade or wait for a better entry.

I have used this strategy more times than I can remember. It’s simply waiting for a trend to form before jumping into one side of a trade or the other. It often gets me into a trade in the right direction and has saved me from making thousands and thousands of mistakes.

Most traders understand this phenomenon but others may not. Perhaps this information can save someone else from jumping in too soon and regretting it.

Good Luck and Good Trading.

1 Comment

Idera Pharmaceuticals

10/11/2017

2 Comments

Idera Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on oncology and rare diseases. The Company uses two distinct proprietary drug discovery technology platforms to design and develop drug candidates: (1) Toll-like receptor, or TLR, targeting technology and (2) our third-generation antisense, or 3GA, technology. They developed these platforms based on scientific expertise and pioneering work with synthetic oligonucleotides.

Using TLR targeting technology the Company designs synthetic oligonucleotide-based drug candidates to modulate the activity of specific TLRs. Using their 3GA technology they are developing drug candidates to turn off the messenger RNA, or mRNA, associated with disease causing genes. Idera believes that 3GA technology may potentially reduce the immunotoxicity and increase the potency of earlier generation antisense and RNA interference, or RNAi, technologies.

The Company's business strategy is focused on the clinical development of drug candidates for oncology and rare diseases characterized by small, well-defined patient populations with serious unmet medical needs. Idera believes they can develop and commercialize these targeted therapies on their own. To the extent they seek to develop drug candidates for broader disease indications, they explore potential collaborative alliances.

I'm extremely attracted to this company's revenue growth and its liability coverage, but little else is available for determining this company's potential going forward. So with so little to go on fundamentally, I rely heavily on the price chart. On the chart it can easily be seen that there's a little resistance at four, five and six dollars per share but after that there's pretty much clear skies.

So with individual shares being this inexpensive, I'll pick up a couple hundred shares and see what happens. This stock could easily double or triple over the next year. Or it could be just another mistake and learning experience.

Idera Pharmaceuticals, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of oligonucleotide therapeutics for oncology and rare diseases in the United States. It uses two drug discovery technology platforms to design and develop drug candidates, including toll-like receptor targeting technology and third-generation antisense (3GA) technology. The company's drug candidates include IMO-2125, an agonist that is in Phase I/II clinical trials in combination with ipilimumab and pembrolizumab for the treatment of anti-PD-1 refractory metastatic melanoma and refractory solid tumors; IMO-8400, an antagonist, which is in Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of dermatomyositis. It also develops IDRA-008 for undisclosed liver target for rare disorder; 3GA compound for renal target; and IMO-9200, a drug candidate for potential use in selected autoimmune disease indications. In addition, the company is developing drug candidates to turn off the messenger RNA associated with disease causing genes. Idera Pharmaceuticals, Inc. has collaboration and license agreement with GSK to research, develop, and commercialize selected molecules from its 3GA technology for the treatment of selected targets in renal disease; collaboration with Abbott Molecular Inc. for the development of an in vitro companion diagnostic; and Merck & Co to research, develop, and commercialize vaccine products. The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)

11 October 2017
Price $2.77
1yr Target $5.75
Analysts 4
Dividend $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.00%

1yr Cap Gain 107.58%
Yield 0.00%
1yr Tot Return 107.58%

P/E ---
PEG ---
Beta 2.14

EPS (ttm) $-0.35
EPS next yr $-0.50
Forward P/E ---
EPS next 5yr ---
1yr Price Support ---

Market Cap $376.08 Mil
Revenues $16.20 Mil
Earnings $-48.60 Mil
Profit Margin ---

Quick Ratio 11.10
Current Ratio 11.10
Debt/Equity 0.01

1yr RevGR 6405.62%
3yr RevGR 587.60%
5yr RevGR 214.08%

1yr EarnGR ---
3yr EarnGR ---
5yr EarnGR ---

1yr DivGR ---
3yr DivGR ---
5yr DivGR ---

ROA -55.10%
ROE -61.10%

2 Comments

Mannkind Corp

10/10/2017

0 Comments

A quick look at Mannkind Corp reveals a stock chart with shares moving higher. A lot higher. For me this is a company that's almost too small to analyze fundamentally, but technically it's exploding. The initial time to have bought shares was in mid-August as the price moved above the 50 dma. But if that point was missed, then the retest of the 50 dma in late September was the clue that these shares were moving higher. The final indicator was last Friday as the 50 dma moved above the 200 dma. It's now on the move with very little resistance between here and $20 with an ultimate target near previous highs in the $50s.

MannKind Corp, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutic products for diabetes diseases in the United States. Its approved product is Afrezza, a rapid-acting, inhaled insulin used to control high blood sugar in adults with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)

9 October 2017
Price $5.33
1yr Target $7.00
Analysts 1
Dividend $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.00%

1yr Cap Gain 31.33%
Yield 0.00%
1yr Tot Return 31.33%

P/E 3.95
PEG 0.15
Beta 2.91

EPS (ttm) $1.35
EPS next yr $-0.84
Forward P/E ---
EPS next 5yr 26.80%
1yr Price Support ---

Market Cap $398.26 Mil
Revenues $179.90 Mil
Earnings $128.80 Mil
Profit Margin 71.59%

Quick Ratio 0.60
Current Ratio 0.60
Debt/Equity ---

1yr RevGR ---
3yr RevGR ---
5yr RevGR ---

1yr EarnGR ---
3yr EarnGR ---
5yr EarnGR ---

1yr DivGR ---
3yr DivGR ---
5yr DivGR ---

ROA 140.10%
ROE -62.10%

0 Comments

Iteris Inc

10/9/2017

0 Comments

Iteris, Inc. is the global leader in applied informatics for transportation and agriculture, turning big data into big breakthrough solutions. The firm collects, aggregates and analyzes data on traffic, roads, weather, water, soil and crops to generate precise informatics that lead to safer transportation and smarter farming. Municipalities, government agencies, crop science companies, farmers and agronomists around the world its solutions to make roads safer and travel more efficient, as well as farmlands more sustainable, healthy and productive.

Iteris, Inc. provides intelligent information solutions to traffic management and global agribusiness markets worldwide. It operates in three segments: Roadway Sensors, Transportation Systems, and Agriculture and Weather Analytics. The Roadway Sensors segment provides vehicle detection and information systems and products for traffic intersection control, incident detection, and roadway traffic data collection applications. Its products include Vantage detection system to detect vehicle presence at intersections, as well as vehicle count, speed, and other traffic data used in traffic management systems; Vantage Vector video/radar hybrid product, an vehicle detection sensor with capabilities, including stop bar detection, advanced-zone detection, and sensing; Vantage systems equipped with smartcycle capability to differentiate between bicycles and other vehicles with a single video detection camera; VersiCam, an integrated camera and processor video detection system; VantageLive!, a cloud-based subscription service; and SmartSpan, PedTrax ,Velocity, VantageLive, and P-series products. The Transportation Systems segment offers transportation engineering and consulting services with a focus on the planning, design, development, and implementation of software-based systems that integrate sensors, video surveillance systems, computers, and communications equipment to enable public agencies to monitor, control, and direct traffic flow; assist in the dispatch of emergency crews; and distribute real-time information about traffic conditions. It offers iPeMS, a specialized transportation performance measurement and traffic analytics solution. The Agriculture and Weather Analytics segment offers ClearPath Weather management tools that allow users to create solutions to meet roadway maintenance decision needs; and ClearAg, a precision agriculture solution. The company serves government agencies. Iteris, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Santa Ana, California.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)

4 October 2017
Price $7.25
1yr Target $8.63
Analysts 4
Dividend $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.00%

1yr Cap Gain 19.03%
Yield 0.00%
1yr Tot Return 19.03%

P/E ---
PEG ---
Beta -0.43

EPS (ttm) $-0.18
EPS next yr $0.05
Forward P/E 161.11
EPS next 5yr 30%
1yr Price Support $1.50

Market Cap $240.05 Mil
Revenues $99.20 Mil
Earnings $-5.60 Mil
Profit Margin ---

Quick Ratio 1.80
Current Ratio 1.90
Debt/Equity 0.00

1yr RevGR 23.45%
3yr RevGR 11.92%
5yr RevGR 10.44%

1yr EarnGR ---
3yr EarnGR ---
5yr EarnGR ---

1yr DivGR ---
3yr DivGR ---
5yr DivGR ---

ROA -8.40%
ROE -12.60%

Overview

Iteris is the leader in the traffic management market which is focused on the development and application of advanced technologies that reduce traffic congestion and improve the safety of surface transportation systems infrastructure. The Company believes that their products and services, as well as sound traffic management, minimize the environmental impact of traffic congestion. By combining outdoor image processing, traffic engineering and information technology, they offer a broad range of Intelligent Transportation Systems and driver safety solutions to customers worldwide. The Company is located in Santa Ana, CA.

Products and Services

Iteris Inc currently operates in three reportable segments: Roadway Sensors, Vehicle Sensors and Transportation Systems. The Roadway Sensors segment includes, among other products, the Vantage, Versicam and Pico vehicle detection systems for traffic intersection control, incident detection and certain highway traffic data collection applications. The Vehicle Sensors segment includes lane departure warning products, including the AutoVue LDW system, and is comprised of all activities related to in-vehicle safety. The Transportation Systems segment includes transportation engineering and consulting services, and the development of transportation management and traveler information systems for the ITS industry.

Roadway Sensors. The Company's Roadway Sensors segment uses advanced image processing technology to capture and analyze video images through sophisticated algorithms, enabling vehicle detection and transmission of both video images and data using a wide range of communication technologies. Their Vantage video detection systems detect vehicle presence, count, speed, occupancy and other traffic data used in traffic management systems. Their Vantage systems give traffic managers the ability to mitigate roadway congestion by modifying traffic signal timing or detecting incidents quickly. Their VantageView software supplements the Vantage video detection systems by providing an integrated platform to manage and “see” video detection assets remotely over a network connection. Vantage video detection systems have been deployed by hundreds of agencies and are currently sold through a network of independent dealers in the United States, Asia, Latin America, Europe and the Middle East.

VersiCam, the Company's integrated camera and processor video detection system, is a cost-efficient video detection system for smaller intersections that require only a few detection points. In December 2009, the Company introduced Pico, a compact video detection system that delivers superior vehicle detection in a small and economical framework, and was developed primarily to address international video detection needs. Iteris anticipates that future growth domestically and internationally, particularly in developing countries, will be dependent in part on the continued adoption of above-ground video detection technologies, instead of in-pavement loop technology, to manage traffic.

Roadway Sensors also includes the Abacus family of products, which has been designed with a blend of artificial intelligence and video detection algorithms that allow either fixed or pan-tilt-zoom cameras to be used for data collection and incident detection. The Abacus products take advantage of the large number of existing installed closed-circuit television video feeds monitoring roadways, tunnels and bridges and at signalized intersections. This flexibility of using a broad range of cameras with an appropriate perspective allows for accurate data collection without the set-up and calibration required with other systems.

Vehicle Sensors. The Vehicle Sensors segment addresses the leading causes of roadway fatalities: lane change, roadway departure and rear-end collision accidents. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, these three crash types result in more than 60% of the U.S.’s annual traffic fatalities and contribute to a considerable economic loss due to injuries, property damage, and decreased productivity.

Iteris developed the world’s first production LDW system and offer a proven system that is available as an original equipment manufacturer and aftermarket option on heavy trucks worldwide and as an option in certain passenger cars. The LDW products utilize video detection images to detect when a vehicle begins to drift toward an unintended lane change. When this occurs, the unit automatically emits a distinctive rumble strip or other audible warning sound, alerting the driver to make a correction. To date, we have sold approximately 79,000 LDW systems into the heavy truck market in Europe, North America and Asia. The Company's LDW systems are currently qualified as an option on certain heavy trucks, including Mercedes-Benz, MAN, Iveco, DAF, Scania, Freightliner and FUSO, as well as Neoplan and MAN luxury bus and coach lines. In North America, our LDW systems are sold primarily to truck fleets. Iteris has entered into an exclusive license of their LDW technology to their strategic partner, Valeo Schalter and Sensuren GmbH, for the passenger car market, resulting in sales to date of approximately 79,300 LDW systems for passenger cars.

In addition to the Company's LDW systems, their Vehicle Sensors portfolio includes radar-based Forward Collision Warning and Blind Spot Warning systems for the North American truck market. The Company offers the FCW and BSW features through the resale of Delphi’s radar based systems, for which Iteris is the exclusive North American dealer. Their portfolio also includes the internally-developed SafetyDirect software system, which can provide a single point of access to monitor and synchronize driver performance data on braking, stability control, following distances, and lane departure warnings for individual drivers as well as entire fleets. SafetyDirect uses information transmitted from the vehicle by the fleet’s onboard mobile communications system to provide fleet operators with a comprehensive view of the entire fleet, as well as the ability to drill down to detailed information on individual drivers and events. These products, together with our LDW products, combine to create a broad suite of active safety driver assistance features designed to help reduce the number of motor vehicle crashes and the severity of crash-related injuries.

Transportation Systems. The Transportation Systems segment includes transportation engineering and consulting services focused on the planning, design, development and implementation of software-based systems that integrate sensors, video surveillance, computers and advanced communications equipment to enable public agencies to monitor, control and direct traffic flow, assist in the quick dispatch of emergency crews and distribute real-time information about traffic conditions. Our services include planning, design and implementation of surface transportation infrastructure systems. They perform analysis and study goods movement, commercial vehicle operations, travel demand forecasting and systems engineering, and identify mitigation measures to reduce traffic congestion. These services and systems have historically been primarily sold to local, state and national transportation agencies in the U.S.; however, during the fiscal year ended March 31, 2010, they began work on their first overseas contracts in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, and plan to continue to pursue additional international business.

Iteris Daily Chart

Iteris Weekly Chart

What I'm Doing.

For me this is a pretty small company to invest in but the stock's price chart caught my eye recently. Looking at the fundamentals is a little difficult since there's a few holes in the numbers. One of the things that sticks out is the increasing rate of growth of earnings over the last 1, 3, and 5 years. In addition, it looks like this company is about to go earnings positive next year. That's going to bring in a lot of investors who simply won't buy shares of any stock that doesn't have positive earnings.

So I recently picked up a few shares of this company. I believe if earnings really do grow at a 30% rate then the stock price itself could easily grow at a 30% rate also. That would drive the price of these shares very quickly to $9.50 per share.

0 Comments

Gene Therapy Companies

10/5/2017

0 Comments

Gene therapy is an experimental technique that uses genes to treat or prevent disease. In the future, this technique may allow doctors to treat a disorder by inserting a gene into a patient’s cells instead of using drugs or surgery. Researchers are testing several approaches to gene therapy, including:

Replacing a mutated gene that causes disease with a healthy copy of the gene.
Inactivating, or “knocking out,” a mutated gene that is functioning improperly.
Introducing a new gene into the body to help fight a disease.

Although gene therapy is a promising treatment option for a number of diseases (including inherited disorders, some types of cancer, and certain viral infections), the technique remains risky and is still under study to make sure that it will be safe and effective. Gene therapy is currently being tested only for diseases that have no other cures.

So today I just want to do an initial assessment of a few of the top gene therapy companies and see what their fundamentals and technicals look like. I think that gene therapy is on the verge of introducing several blockbuster drugs over the next several years and those companies are expected to earn billions of dollars in profits. Obviously I want to be part of that as I intend to own shares in these companies.

Abeona Therapeutics Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and delivering gene therapy and plasma-based products for severe and life-threatening rare diseases. The company offers MuGard, a mucoadhesive oral wound rinse for mucositis, stomatitis, aphthous ulcers, and traumatic ulcers; and ProctiGard, a mucoadhesive oral wound rinse for the treatment of rectal mucositis and radiation proctitis. Its lead program is an adeno-associated virus (AAV)-based gene therapy for sanfilippo syndrome. The company develops ABO-101 for Mucopolysaccharidosis (MPS) III, a sanfilippo syndrome Type B; ABO-102 for MPS III, a sanfilippo syndrome Type A; ABO-201 for juvenile batten disease; ABO-301 for fanconi anemia; and clustered, regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)-CRISPR associated protein 9 AAV for rare blood diseases. It also develops PTB-101 salt diafiltration process (SDF) Alpha, a alpha1-proteinase inhibitor for chronic augmentation and maintenance therapy in adults with clinically evident emphysema due to severe deficiency of alpha1-proteinase inhibitor; and PTB-102 SDF IVIG, an intravenous immunoglobulin for autoimmune, infectious, and idiopathic diseases. The company was formerly known as PlasmaTech Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Abeona Therapeutics Inc. in June 2015. Abeona Therapeutics Inc. was incorporated in 1989 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)

1 October 2017
Price $17.05
1yr Target $20.00
Analysts 6
Dividend $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.00%

1yr Cap Gain 17.30%
Yield 0.00%
1yr Tot Return 17.30%

P/E ---
PEG ---
Beta 2.41

EPS (ttm) $-0.60
EPS next yr $-0.78
Forward P/E ---
EPS next 5yr ---
1yr Price Support ---

Market Cap $682.85 Mil
Revenues $0.80 Mil
Earnings $-23.30 Mil
Profit Margin 0.00%

Quick Ratio 14.00
Current Ratio 14.00
Debt/Equity 0.00

1yr RevGR -14.42%
3yr RevGR -24.00%
5yr RevGR -13.54%

1yr EarnGR ---
3yr EarnGR ---
5yr EarnGR ---

1yr DivGR ---
3yr DivGR ---
5yr DivGR ---

ROA -23.90%
ROE -26.70%

AveXis, Inc., a clinical-stage gene therapy company, engages in developing and commercializing treatments for patients suffering from rare and life-threatening neurological genetic diseases. Its initial product candidate is AVXS-101, a gene therapy product candidate that has completed Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of spinal muscular atrophy Type 1. The company also intends to identify, acquire, develop, and commercialize gene therapy product candidates for the treatment of other rare and life-threatening neurological genetic diseases. It has strategic collaboration and license agreements with Nationwide Children's Hospital; The Research Institute at Nationwide Children's Hospital; REGENXBIO Inc.; and Asklepios Biopharmaceutical, Inc. The company was formerly known as BioLife Cell Bank, Inc. and changed its name to AveXis, Inc. in January 2014. AveXis, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Bannockburn, Illinois.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)

1 October 2017
Price $96.73
1yr Target $107.69
Analysts 13
Dividend $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.00%

1yr Cap Gain 11.33%
Yield 0.00%
1yr Tot Return 11.33%

P/E ---
PEG ---
Beta ---

EPS (ttm) $-4.93
EPS next yr $-5.46
Forward P/E ---
EPS next 5yr 9.25%
1yr Price Support ---

Market Cap $2.94 Bil
Revenues ---
Earnings $-134.20 Mil
Profit Margin 0.00%

Quick Ratio 15.60
Current Ratio 15.60
Debt/Equity 0.00

1yr RevGR ---
3yr RevGR ---
5yr RevGR ---

1yr EarnGR ---
3yr EarnGR ---
5yr EarnGR ---

1yr DivGR ---
3yr DivGR ---
5yr DivGR ---

ROA -42.20%
ROE -45.60%

bluebird bio, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, focuses on developing transformative gene therapies for severe genetic diseases and cancer. Its product candidates include Lenti-D that is in phase II/III clinical studies for the treatment of cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy, a rare hereditary neurological disorder; and LentiGlobin, which is in four clinical studies for the treatment of transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia, and severe sickle cell disease. The company’s lead product candidate is bb2121, a chimeric antigen receptor T cell product candidate that is in Phase I trial for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma. bluebird bio, Inc. has a strategic collaboration with Celgene Corporation to discover, develop, and commercialize disease-altering gene therapies in oncology; Kite Pharma, Inc. to develop and commercialize second generation T cell receptor (TCR) product candidates against an antigen related to certain cancers associated with the human papilloma virus; and Medigene AG for the research and development of TCR product candidates directed against approximately four antigens for the treatment of cancer indications. The company was formerly known as Genetix Pharmaceuticals, Inc., and changed its name to bluebird bio, Inc. in September 2010. bluebird bio, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)

1 October 2017
Price $137.35
1yr Target $116.47
Analysts 15
Dividend $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.00%

1yr Cap Gain -15.21%
Yield 0.00%
1yr Tot Return -15.21%

P/E ---
PEG ---
Beta 2.04

EPS (ttm) $-7.36
EPS next yr $-6.96
Forward P/E ---
EPS next 5yr ---
1yr Price Support ---

Market Cap $6.43 Bil
Revenues $26.70 Mil
Earnings $-288.00 Mil
Profit Margin ---

Quick Ratio 14.40
Current Ratio 14.40
Debt/Equity 0.13

1yr RevGR -56.29%
3yr RevGR -32.43%
5yr RevGR ---

1yr EarnGR ---
3yr EarnGR ---
5yr EarnGR ---

1yr DivGR ---
3yr DivGR ---
5yr DivGR ---

ROA -25.20%
ROE -32.20%

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. develops and commercializes pharmaceuticals for serious diseases and medical conditions in the United States, Europe, Latin America, and internationally. Its commercial products include Aldurazyme used for the treatment of patients with mucopolysaccharidosis I, a genetic disease; Kuvan, a proprietary synthetic oral form of 6R-BH4 used to treat patients with phenylketonuria (PKU), an inherited metabolic disease; Naglazyme, a recombinant form of N-acetylgalactosamine 4-sulfatase for patients with mucopolysaccharidosis VI; and Vimizim, an enzyme replacement therapy for the treatment of MPS IV A, a lysosomal storage disorder. The company also conducts clinical trials on several investigational product candidates for the treatment of various diseases, including Brineura for the treatment of late infantile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis, a form of Batten disease; pegvaliase, an enzyme substitution therapy for the treatment of PKU; vosoritide, a peptide therapeutic for the treatment of achondroplasia; BMN 270, an AAV VIII vector and Factor VIII gene therapy drug development candidate, for the treatment of hemophilia A; and BMN 250, a novel fusion of alpha-N-acetyglucosaminidase for the treatment of Sanfilippo B syndrome, or mucopolysaccharidosis type IIIB. The company serves specialty pharmacies and end-users, such as hospitals and foreign government agencies; and distributors and pharmaceutical wholesalers. BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. has a collaboration agreement with Genzyme Corporation. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in San Rafael, California.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)

1 October 2017
Price $93.07
1yr Target $111.57
Analysts 21
Dividend $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.00%

1yr Cap Gain 19.87%
Yield 0.00%
1yr Tot Return 19.87%

P/E ---
PEG ---
Beta 1.84

EPS (ttm) $-1.02
EPS next yr $-0.25
Forward P/E ---
EPS next 5yr 25.00%
1yr Price Support ---

Market Cap $16.29 Bil
Revenues $1.20 Bil
Earnings $-174.60 Mil
Profit Margin ---

Quick Ratio 2.70
Current Ratio 3.90
Debt/Equity 0.24

1yr RevGR 25.53%
3yr RevGR 23.78%
5yr RevGR 20.40%

1yr EarnGR ---
3yr EarnGR ---
5yr EarnGR ---

1yr DivGR ---
3yr DivGR ---
5yr DivGR ---

ROA -4.40%
ROE -6.40%

Spark Therapeutics, Inc. focuses on the development of gene therapy products for patients suffering from debilitating genetic diseases. Its products include voretigene neparvovec, which is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of genetic blinding conditions called inherited retinal diseases caused by non sex-linked, autosomal recessive, or biallelic mutations in the RPE65 gene; and SPK-CHM that is in Phase I/II clinical trial for the treatment of choroideremia. The company’s products also comprise SPK-7001 that is in Phase 1/2 trial for choroideremia; SPK-9001, which is in Phase 1/2 trial for hemophilia B; and SPK-8011 that is in Phase 1/2 trial hemophilia A. In addition, its product candidates and development programs include SPK-FVIII program to treat hemophilia A; SPK-TPP1 program for the treatment of a form of Batten disease and Huntington's disease; RhoNova for the treatment of rhodopsin-linked autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa; and SPK-LHON for treating Leber hereditary optic neuropathy, as well as preclinical programs in development for the treatment of rare genetic blinding conditions, hematologic disorders, and other neurodegenerative diseases. The company has collaboration agreement with Pfizer, Inc. for the development and commercialization of SPK-FIX product candidates in its gene therapy program for the treatment of hemophilia B. Spark Therapeutics, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)

1 October 2017
Price $89.16
1yr Target $91.00
Analysts 14
Dividend $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.00%

1yr Cap Gain 2.06%
Yield 0.00%
1yr Tot Return 2.06%

P/E ---
PEG ---
Beta ---

EPS (ttm) $-6.38
EPS next yr $-5.01
Forward P/E ---
EPS next 5yr 18.00%
1yr Price Support ---

Market Cap $3.20 Bil
Revenues $20.40 Mil
Earnings $-196.00 Mil
Profit Margin ---

Quick Ratio 6.10
Current Ratio 6.10
Debt/Equity 0.01

1yr RevGR -8.53%
3yr RevGR ---
5yr RevGR ---

1yr EarnGR ---
3yr EarnGR ---
5yr EarnGR ---

1yr DivGR ---
3yr DivGR ---
5yr DivGR ---

ROA -56.60%
ROE -64.90%

REGENXBIO Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, provides gene therapy product candidates to deliver genes to cells to address genetic defects or to enable cells in the body to produce therapeutic proteins that are intended to impact disease. Its gene therapy product candidates are based on NAV Technology Platform, a proprietary adeno-associated virus (AAV) gene delivery platform. The company’s lead product candidate is RGX-314 for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration. It is also developing RGX-501, a product candidate for the treatment of homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia, which uses the AAV8 vector to deliver the human low-density lipoprotein receptor gene to liver cells; and RGX-111, a product candidate to treat the neurological symptoms of Mucopolysaccharidosis Type I that uses the AAV9 vector to deliver the human a-l-iduronidase gene to the central nervous system (CNS). In addition, the company engages in the development of RGX-121, a product candidate for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis Type II, which uses the AAV9 vector to deliver the human iduronate-2-sulfatase gene to the CNS. Further, it licenses its NAV vectors to various other biotechnology companies. The company was formerly known as REGENX Biosciences, LLC and changed its name to REGENXBIO Inc. in September 2014. REGENXBIO Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)

1 October 2017
Price $32.95
1yr Target $44.33
Analysts 3
Dividend $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.00%

1yr Cap Gain 34.53%
Yield 0.00%
1yr Tot Return 34.53%

P/E ---
PEG ---
Beta ---

EPS (ttm) $-2.72
EPS next yr $-3.06
Forward P/E ---
EPS next 5yr ---
1yr Price Support ---

Market Cap $991.80 Mil
Revenues $8.80 Mil
Earnings $-74.20 Mil
Profit Margin ---

Quick Ratio 14.50
Current Ratio 14.50
Debt/Equity 0.00

1yr RevGR -17.78%
3yr RevGR ---
5yr RevGR ---

1yr EarnGR ---
3yr EarnGR ---
5yr EarnGR ---

1yr DivGR ---
3yr DivGR ---
5yr DivGR ---

ROA -36.30%
ROE -38.70%

uniQure N.V., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of gene therapies in the Netherlands. The company’s principle programs include AMT-060, a gene therapy that has completed Phase I/II clinical trial for the treatment of hemophilia B; S100A1, a preclinical product candidate for the treatment of congestive heart failure; and AMT-130 for the treatment of huntington's disease. It also provides Glybera, a gene therapy product that has approved for the treatment of patients with lipoprotein lipase deficiency. The company has collaboration and license agreements with Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Synpromics, and Chiesi Farmaceutici S.p.A. uniQure N.V. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)

1 October 2017
Price $9.60
1yr Target $14.36
Analysts 5
Dividend $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.00%

1yr Cap Gain 49.58%
Yield 0.00%
1yr Tot Return 49.58%

P/E ---
PEG ---
Beta 0.45

EPS (ttm) $-3.01
EPS next yr $-2.60
Forward P/E ---
EPS next 5yr ---
1yr Price Support ---

Market Cap $245.38 Mil
Revenues $19.20 Mil
Earnings $-76.10 Mil
Profit Margin ---

Quick Ratio ---
Current Ratio 4.80
Debt/Equity 0.75

1yr RevGR ---
3yr RevGR ---
5yr RevGR ---

1yr EarnGR ---
3yr EarnGR ---
5yr EarnGR ---

1yr DivGR ---
3yr DivGR ---
5yr DivGR ---

ROA -41.90%
ROE -132.00%

Voyager Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage gene therapy company, focuses on the development of treatments for patients suffering from severe diseases of the central nervous system. The company’s lead clinical candidate is the VY-AADC01, which is in Phase Ib clinical trial for the treatment of advanced Parkinson's disease. Its preclinical programs comprise VY-SOD101 for a monogenic form of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; VY-HTT01 for Huntington’s disease; VY-FXN01 for Friedreich's ataxia; VY-TAU01, Alzheimer’s disease; and VY-NAV01 for severe chronic pain. The company has strategic collaboration agreements with Genzyme Corporation and the University of Massachusetts. Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
(Summary) (Company) (Chart)

1 October 2017
Price $20.59
1yr Target $28.00
Analysts 6
Dividend $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.00%

1yr Cap Gain 35.98%
Yield 0.00%
1yr Tot Return 35.98%

P/E ---
PEG ---
Beta ---

EPS (ttm) $-2.30
EPS next yr $-2.59
Forward P/E ---
EPS next 5yr ---
1yr Price Support ---

Market Cap $525.46 Mil
Revenues $8.30 Mil
Earnings $-59.20 Mil
Profit Margin ---

Quick Ratio 12.20
Current Ratio 12.20
Debt/Equity 0.00

1yr RevGR 44.01%
3yr RevGR ---
5yr RevGR ---

1yr EarnGR ---
3yr EarnGR ---
5yr EarnGR ---

1yr DivGR ---
3yr DivGR ---
5yr DivGR ---

ROA -32.70%
ROE -46,20%

The Path Forward

Gene Therapy is an area of medicine that has become extremely interesting to me. In an area of genetic manipulation it may not be as sexy as gene editing but it may just be a treatment that is ahead of editing. It may also be complementary to gene editing and in some cases more effective. As an alternative, it will most likely produce a lot of effective treatments and cures for genetically damaged diseases.

As a result, I need to be involved in at least some of these companies. Today, however, I'm still trying to get my head wrapped around which of these companies is close to developing an approved product and which ones are simply in Phase 11/111 trials. So obviously additional research is needed.

At first glance BioMarin Pharmaceuticals seems the obvious one to own simply because it is increasing revenues and appears to be close to producing a profit within the next two years. That may be a great place to start but I'm sure there's more to these companies stories.

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My Best Advisor is Me

10/3/2017

0 Comments

Recently I've been reading and re-reading many of the articles found on this website to learn from one of the best teacher's in the world -- my own experience. It's something every investor should do. And do often. Learn from their own successes and failures. From their own experience. It turns out that personal experience really is the best teacher after all.

To my benefit, I've been taking that advice and executing a few of those trades outlined in those articles.

I’ve always been an investor who invests primarily in companies that use their earnings to grow both the company's future earnings and to distribute large dividends. I especially like those companies that also increase those dividends over time. Companies that increase their dividends every year for a number of years are often referred to as Dividend Growth Companies. They’re easy to find and I have two links in the drop down menus above that will take any investor directly and immediately to the lists of Dividend Kings and Dividend Aristocrats.

"Life is a compromise of what your ego wants to do, what experience tells you to do, and what your nerves let you do."
Walter Bagehot

I also believe in investing part of my funds in companies that distribute all of their profits to their shareholders in the form of dividends. These are often referred to as MLPs, BDCs and REITs. Finally I like to enhance those returns by selling both covered calls and cash secured puts. Information on each of these strategies can be found all throughout my this website and complete list of those articles can be found by clicking on the link “Investing Articles” found at the top of this page or on the right hand side column under Categories.

I feel fortunate that I am able to consult with myself through these articles. Whenever I have a question about an investing strategy, I can usually find sage advice in earlier articles I’ve written. If not, I’ll write a new article which I can use in the future whenever the current problem presents itself again. Writing these articles has been an interesting and beneficial exercise and I recommend everyone create something similar for themselves. It forces an investor to flush out their thoughts on investing and to create a comprehensive investing strategy. This usually is a major step in becoming a successful investor.

The end product of all of this is having an organized plan of attack which simplifies my daily investment decisions and reduces the number of investing mistakes. It’s those small mistakes that wreck such tremendous havoc on your portfolio.

My best wishes to all the struggling investors out there. You are not alone.

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A High Beta Put-Call Strategy

10/1/2017

3 Comments

Occasionally while screening stocks on the weekend I come across a security with a relatively high beta that exhibits a lot of up and down movement in the short term but little if any movement in the long term. These two relative degrees of volatility can often be recognized by viewing volatility on the daily chart versus volatility on the weekly chart.

When I identify a stock I would like to own that has these characteristics, I consider putting in place a strategy of entering and exiting the stock using puts and calls. Specifically I use cash secured puts and covered calls. It's a cash intensive strategy but it's also a very lucrative strategy.

The gist of the strategy is simple. First I always identify a stock that I wouldn't mind owning just in case the strategy doesn't work and I end up owning the security. This step is important because I wouldn't want to end up buying a security I would not have wanted to buy outside this strategy. I would then use the daily and weekly charts to determine the stock's support and resistance areas. I would then sell cash secured puts at or just above the support level to collect the put premium and increase the probability of having the stock "put" to me. Once I own the stock, I'd sell covered calls on the stock at or just below resistance to collect the premium and increase the probability of having the stock "called" from me.

In the full turn of the trade I would have collected a put premium, a call premium, and the capital gain on the security as it rose from the support level to the resistance level. If the stock continues to reverse up and down over time, this trade can be repeated over and over again.

This is obviously a trading strategy and not an investing strategy. Investors that are not familiar with technical analysis, put and call options, or investors that are not nimble enough to trade in this type of timeframe, should not attempt this type of strategy. However, a trader that is, can make a nice income using this stately. I generally use the income generated using this strategy to buy dividend growth stocks, which is a much more conservative investing strategy.

A High Beta Put-Call Strategy

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