Chili's Grill and Bar

During the year ending June 26, 2013, entrée selections ranged in menu price from $12.95 to $42.50. The average revenue per meal, including alcoholic beverages, was approximately $26.72 per person. Food and non-alcoholic beverage sales constituted approximately 83.0% of restaurant revenues, with alcoholic beverage sales accounting for the remaining 17.0%. Sales from events at our banquet facilities made up 19.4% of our total restaurant revenues for the year. Our average annual sales volume per Maggiano’s restaurant during this same year was $8.81 million.
New Openings
Brinker plans on opening a number of additional company-owned and franchised restaurants in 2014. They expect to open 11-12 company-owned and 4-6 franchised Chili's restaurants in the North American market. In the International market they expect to open 2 company-owned and 31-35 franchised Chili's restaurants. They also expect to open 2-3 additional Maggiano's restaurants within the North American market. Currently there are no franchised Maggiano's restaurants and none of them are located outside North America. Of the Chili's restaurants, 35% of the domestic and 96% of the international restaurants are franchised.
Historical Highlights
- 1975: The first Chili's Grill & Bar opens in Dallas, Texas.
- 1983: The company goes public.
- 1988: The first Romano's Macaroni Grill opens in Leon Springs, Texas.
- 1991: Chili's, Inc. is renamed Brinker International, Inc.
- 1995: Brinker complete's the acquisition of Maggiano's and establishes a strategic partnership with Lettuce Entertain You Enterprises.
- 2005: Brinker sells off the Corner Bakery Cafe concept.
- 2008: Brinker sells the majority stake in Romano's Macaroni Grill to Mac Acquisition LLC. (Brinker still owns a minority interest in Mac Acquisition)
- 2010: Brinker sells On the Border Mexican Grill & Cantina to OTB Acquisition LLC.
The Fundamentals
With the company finally focused on their two main restaurant concepts, revenues are estimated to grow 3.79% in 2015 and 7.30% in 2016. Earnings are estimated to increase 14.92% in 2015 and 13.63% in 2016. Dividends are estimated to increase 16.66% in 2015 and 14.28% in 2016. (Brinker announced on Thursday, Aug 21, a dividend increase to $0.28 from $0.24, a 16.66% increase).
Year (June) 2016 Est 2015 Est 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 | Revenues $3.13 Bil $3.01 Bil $2.90 Bil $2.84 Bil $2.82 Bil $2.76 Bil $2.85 Bil $3.27 Bil $4.23 Bil $4.37 Bil $4.15 Bil $3.91 Bil $3.70 Bil $3.28 Bil | Earnings $3.50 $3.08 $2.68 $2.20 $1.87 $1.53 $1.34 $0.77 $0.49 $1.85 $1.62 $1.15 $1.02 $1.13 | Dividends $1.28 $1.12 $0.96 $0.80 $0.64 $0.56 $0.47 $0.44 $0.42 $0.33 $0.20 N/A N/A N/A | Payout Ratio 36.57% 36.36% 35.82% 36.36% 34.22% 36.60% 35.07% 57.14% 85.71% 17.83% 12.34% % % % |
Prior to 2010 Brinker consisted of multiple restaurant concepts which were fully developed and eventually sold. As a result, the 5 and 10 year growth rates below include entire restaurant chains that are no longer part of Brinker International. The 3 year growth rates more accurately represents the corporation as it exists today. While I like to see growth rates over multiple periods, I think for Brinker International it's best to see the 3 year growth rates as best representing the company and its organizational structure as it exists today.
Revenue Growth Rate 3 year = 1.64% 5 year = -2.38% 10 year = -2.41% | Earnings Growth Rate 3 year = 20.31% 5 year = 28.33% 10 year = 10.14% | Dividend Growth Rate 3 year = 19.46% 5 year = 16.88% 8 year = 21.66% |
The Technicals
The Competition
- McDonald's Corporation (MCD)
- Yum Brands, Inc. (YUM)
- Burger King Worldwide, Inc (BKW)
- Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI)
- Dunkin' Brands Group, Inc. (DNKN)
- Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ)
- Brinker International, Inc.
- The Wendy's Company (WEN)
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL)
- Jack in the Box, Inc. (JACK)
- The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. (CAKE)
- Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH)
- DineEquity, Inc. (DIN)
- Sonic Corporation (SONC)
- Bob Evans Farms, Inc. (BOBE)
Conclusion
But I like to buy companies that are on sale and based upon the technicals, this company currently is not. My intent is to wait for a pullback in the price of the stock to an area near $44-$45. By waiting, the P/E ratio will fall to a level at or below 20, the one year estimated capital gain will increase to above 16%, and the dividend yield will increase to near 2.50%. These are actually ideal numbers for a dividend growth investor and would signal to me that this is a great company at a great price.
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