There's a lot of investors trying to figure out where the bottom is in the price of oil. And there's a lot of consumers hoping we haven't found it yet! In the world of Geo-Political Posturing, the drop in the price of oil has been good for the good guys and bad for the bad guys. But in the world of investing the drop has been bad for those holding oil stocks and good for those wanting to buy the oil stocks.
The chart I usually use to look at oil prices is the chart of the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) United States Oil Fund (USO). This ETF seeks to reflect the performance, less expenses, of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil. The fund invests in futures contracts for WTI light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum based-fuels that are traded on the exchanges. It also invest in other oil interests such as cash-settled options on oil futures contracts, forward contracts for oil, and OTC transactions that are based on the price of oil. That all sounds confusing but it's basically all related to the price of oil.
So where is the bottom? On the daily chart below it appears that the price of USO is bottoming and starting to turn up. It appears that this may have started earlier this week. If you look closely a lot of volume came in earlier this week as it appears that price support was provided. That's a good short term sign for oil.
A look at the weekly chart shows a price that continues to fall but volume is coming in heavy and the price looks like it may be having a difficult time continuing its downward path. The RSI is also way over sold but the MACD hasn't begun to turn yet. Nor has the ADX.
I like and own oil stocks and I've written several articles on them (see in particular the recent article "Integrated Oil Companies"). I too am looking for the bottom so I can accumulate more shares in these companies. You may be seeing the bottom form today but I'm the kind of investor that waits for confirmation before entering a trade. I want to get in as low as I can, receive the highest dividend that I can, and simply sit back and watch those dividends grow.
Good Luck and Good Trading.
The chart I usually use to look at oil prices is the chart of the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) United States Oil Fund (USO). This ETF seeks to reflect the performance, less expenses, of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil. The fund invests in futures contracts for WTI light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum based-fuels that are traded on the exchanges. It also invest in other oil interests such as cash-settled options on oil futures contracts, forward contracts for oil, and OTC transactions that are based on the price of oil. That all sounds confusing but it's basically all related to the price of oil.
So where is the bottom? On the daily chart below it appears that the price of USO is bottoming and starting to turn up. It appears that this may have started earlier this week. If you look closely a lot of volume came in earlier this week as it appears that price support was provided. That's a good short term sign for oil.
A look at the weekly chart shows a price that continues to fall but volume is coming in heavy and the price looks like it may be having a difficult time continuing its downward path. The RSI is also way over sold but the MACD hasn't begun to turn yet. Nor has the ADX.
I like and own oil stocks and I've written several articles on them (see in particular the recent article "Integrated Oil Companies"). I too am looking for the bottom so I can accumulate more shares in these companies. You may be seeing the bottom form today but I'm the kind of investor that waits for confirmation before entering a trade. I want to get in as low as I can, receive the highest dividend that I can, and simply sit back and watch those dividends grow.
Good Luck and Good Trading.
 Daily Chart |  Weekly Chart |
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